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Message from discussion Down 95% from February: Bankruptcy or takeover?
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ratu...@gmail.com  
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 More options Aug 10 2007, 9:10 pm
From: ratu...@gmail.com
Date: Fri, 10 Aug 2007 18:10:45 -0700
Local: Fri, Aug 10 2007 9:10 pm
Subject: Re: Down 95% from February: Bankruptcy or takeover?

> AHM was not a "reasonable" company.  It was part of a serious fraud
> perpetrated against the American home buying public and played fast
> and loose with consumer lending rules.  It was a morally bankrupt
> enterprise.

Certainly there were problems with the home mortgage industry, but
your characterization seems unfair.  A claim of fraud is a criminal
allegation.  I have seen no evidence of anything actionable, nor have
I even heard word of investigation of such matters.  I am not a fan of
AHM, but I would say they are guilty of poor judgment, yes.  Fraud,
no.  This seems to be the belief of the feds and most in the industry
also.

My comparison stands.  Compared to GOFH, AHM at least had a real
business model. GOFH does not.

>GOFH does not have debt, only the "Notes".  If there are
> convenants in the notes that reflect a techncial default please
> enlighten me.  Those notes were created in May/June during the
> "convenant lite" times.

Uuh...yeah.  If you read through the agreement, the private "notes"
held against GOFH are pretty draconian.  Full ratchet antidilution
etc.  The purchasers have the right to PUT notes back on GOFH.

It's called debt.  Not to mention the rate GOFH is burning through
cash.

> Even though GOFH is publicly traded, I believe that there are
> sufficient inside holders that own a majority of shares, so a takeout
> is not possible without explicit permission from the powers that be.

Substantiation of claim, please.

Even if this were true, the question is: why isn't GOFH's board
authorizing a stock buyback for pennies on the dollar?  Good companies
do this.  Like MINI, whose board announced this week that they felt
that their stock was undervalued, so they are spending $50 million to
repurchase stock.  GOFH has enough money from their $10M private
capital infusion that they could repurchase every public note of their
company at current rates and still have 2.5 million left over.  Why
don't they do it?  Indeed, failure to do so when prices are so low --
down to just 5% of the February high -- cannot fail to be seen as
demonstrating a lack of the GOFH administration's confidence in their
own future.  Surely the current 32 cents/share would be a bargain
basement price for repurchasing if the stock had any future at all.
Even if the company remained stagnant, one could earn significant
money simply off of the volatility.

There is really only one possible reason for the lack of repurchase:
they see that their company has no future.  They realize that their
stock is virtually worthless, that their company is headed for the
toilet bowl. They struggle enough paying their own debts and trying to
figure out how they will stay in business 6 or 9 months from now when
their current funds are exhausted, that any idea of repurchasing
shares is simply crazy talk to them.   The fact that no one is buying,
that no one wants this company's stock even at fire-sale prices --
seemingly, not even the company executives themselves -- must be
viewed as a very bad sign, with worse yet to come.


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