Edward.Joseph.Tho...@gmail.com wrote:
> All,

> Please be aware that I am not recommending a buy, sell or hold. I am
> trying to open a forum to discuss the business model of online video.

> The underlying fundamentals (i.e. with respect to profitability) of
> this company are
> by no means getting better. They actually appear to be deteriorating
> (according to their 10-K).

> My assessment above was really about building valuation models for web
> 2.0 companies (i.e. based on web metrics). GoFish and Bolt together
> have the traffic to stir up a potential acquirer; however I do not see
> how this company can remain solvent as a stand-alone company for the
> long-term. They just have too much debt and are burning through too
> much cash. Also keep in mind that this merger with Bolt has not even
> happened yet and there is no guarantee that it will.

> My point is if you think GoFish may make a for a good acquisition
> target for someone looking to go into the online video space, then
> sure why not (which is wishful thinking or speculation). On the other
> hand, if you bought in thinking that it would be profitable as a
> stand-
> alone company based on its fundamentals then well...

> I don't see how this company can be profitable in the near-term unless
> something extraordinary happens (e.g. Youtube is shut-down and
> advertisers flock to GoFish). I do however see it as a potential
> strategic asset with a partner in the online ad space and with deep
> pockets (e.g. Yahoo, Microsoft). A savvy acquirer can potentially
> figure out a way to efficiently capitalize/monetize GoFish and Bolt's
> traffic (something the current leadership at GoFish seem to have
> trouble doing). Nonetheless, if it is eventually acquired, it may not
> be until it is more distressed and/or insolvent...

> Please keep in mind that I'm not an investment professional and am
> simply giving my personal opinion.