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Re: The Prudent Optimist...

ratu...@gmail.com

Brooke,

Thank you for your thoughtful reply.

>But to say that this company ( stock ) has NO intrinsic value is both
>vague and misleading.

Perhaps it is a matter of opinion.  Looking at the financials where
their costs are >100x their revenues, I don't know how they are going
to pull it off.  The video development business is expensive -- at
least GOFH's is, based on their quarterly expenses to date.  And site
ads alone generate only a fraction of a cent per page view.  Site ad
based revenue may work for google with billions of page views and
inexpensive, algorithm-generated content, but is a poor business model
for a higher-cost business.  There is no other visible revenue for
GOFH, and it doesn't seem to me that even a dramatic increase in ad
revenue will come close to making their expenses.  Nor do they seem to
be very successful in attracting the kind of user-generated content
that metacafe.com and other video sites have.

I have studied GOFH and its data available and model carefully for
some months.  I finally got out when I realized, as I said, that there
is no bottom to the stock price because -- IMO -- the stock has no
intrinsic worth. Yes, their content has *some* worth, but the worth is
*less* than the cost to produce -- at least that is certainly the
direction that the data points.  The liabilities outweigh the
assets.

How long will GOFH last?  It is not a good acquisition target, so it
will probably last as long as people are willing to pour new money
into the firm by private or public financing.  Someday people will
realize that GOFH is, so to speak, a bottomless pit that will likely
always eat more revenue than it produces, and will stop funding it
through public or private investment.  Then the firm will go belly-up
or will be forced into bankruptcy, or be acquired by some third party
(that will restructure drastically) for pennies on the dollar.

Yet short of daydreaming that GOFH is the next YouTube -- daydreams
that are untenable for reasons I have previously discussed -- I see no
way that GOFH will succeed financially.  There are good, NASDAQ-listed
firms that get beat up well on Wall Street for minor revenue
shortfalls or failing to meet expectations.  GOFH is orders of
magnitude away from them...not even in the same ballpark.

Perhaps I am wrong.  Maybe they have aces up their sleeve that I
haven't seen.  I hope for their sake, and that of their stockholders,
that they will do well.  It is again a speculative stock -- one with
terrible fundamentals (How many multiples of 100 is the PE?)  and a
bad business model.  Caveat emptor.