As GOFH shareholder, the recent announcement of GOFH collecting $10
million in private capital selling, among other things, certificates
for over 3 million shares at $1.75 per share including full-ratchet
anti-dilution protection, in addition to others at 1.60/share, is
concerning.
It tells me that GOFH is desperate for funding, as shares have never
been publicly offered at such a low price, nor has the stock market
price ever fallen so low. It also tells me what management thinks
that the shares are worth at present, which is not much. With full
ratchet anti-dilution protection, no less??
Presumably much of the money will cover the BOLT acquisition among
other things, but GOFH is consuming larger amounts of money. They
already went through $3 million 1Q 2007. However, one could say the
same for google -- yahoo -- and other internet stocks which had no
good revenue source for years.
On the good side, if GOFH can make it to NASDAQ -- as it has applied
for -- its value should increase considerably. Also, GOFH is
succeeding in attracting much more traffic. Alexa.com ranks
GOFISH.COM as the #819th most popular internet site: not bad for a
site that just launched in November 2006. It is up to #713 within the
last week. (Comparison: youtube.com is #4, myspace.com is #6,
facebook.com is #17, walmart is #417, netflix is #483). GOFISH.COM
also ranks highly in international internet traffic. They have signed
good licensing and other agreements which should help them bring in
more money.
GOFH has also been rapidly developing its content. Within the past 3
months, they have added several major new initiatives. The content is
expanding rapidly, which can only bode favorably for its popularity.
Although Not too much can be said for GOFISH's script writers, and
none of their content has the level of intelligence or humor that one
finds in other MFI programming such as s "Goodnight Burbank." The
"Hidden Celebrity Webcam" is just plain crude and "Seduce a Celeb"
leaves much to be desired -- recent additions such as the mixed
martial arts network add better content. It remains to be seen whether
GOFISH developers are capable of adding content that will appeal to a
wider audience beyond rather simplistic sports, sex appeal, and
slapstick humor. Not that other ventures in those directions alone
have not done well, but gofish.com is not currently a site which can
currently be considered either family-friendly or intellectual. This
makes it less likely to be an attractive acquisition target for a
major internet player, which is perhaps its best hope for a big stock
return (a la youtube.com). Broadening its horizons in those
directions would certainly help. It is not clear how long GOFH can
continue to put out the money it is currently spending on developing
content, when it has very little ad revenue. In comparison to, for
instance, google, GOFH's content is pricy to develop, and there is not
the same potential for advertising. The revenue economics are also
not as good even as humble youtube's, because it is much more
expensive for a firm to develop its own internet programming rather
than simply hosting content that others develop and collecting the
revenue fees for banner ads. I could be wrong, but it seems to me
that only big-name corporate sponsors, partnerships, or acquisition
seem likely to make GOFH ultimately profitable.
Today's announcement, at least, seems to peg an anticipated lower
limit to the stock price which we can believe will only increase. It
seems like a good time to buy, although the long-term future of GOFH
seems likely to be volatile with great potential rewards but also
considerable risk. Time will tell.