Morning, again.  I just read a few very interesting articles.  The
problem is not MPEL - cash flow or planning - but, rather, a lack /
need of "qualified" contractors, specifically as it applies to
interior construction and design.  Carpenters, electricians, painters,
etc. are in huge demand and stretched incredibly thin.  Furthermore,
the help that the qualified contractors employ are unreliable at
best.  There are a tremendous amount of "no shows".  There is also a
huge learning curve / problem with "training on the job".  It's my
understanding that we'll see yet another "soft" opening "around" April
28th, with full completion of the casino / hotel projected for Q4
2007.

Not a contractor but having supervised contracting budgets over the
years, I can appreciate the situation in Macau.  There is a similar
problem quite actually in the NY-Metropolitan area, particularly as
huge arena and stadium projects develop.  Trade positions are in
demand.  Leverage is far and inbetween.  However, those who do get the
jobs suffer from what I'm reading is the same in Macau - motivation /
lack of talent.  Fewer individuals in this area wish to be a painter
or plumber than they aspire to be on Wall Street.  In Macau, you do
not have these problems, but those of culture / language barriers and
shear lack of manpower.  Hence, we observe Tiger Air a few weeks ago
setting a ridiculous fair of approximately $10-$15 dollars back and
forth from the Philippines, no doubt in an effort to bolster the work
population.

As if these issues were not enough, researching further, it's
disheartening to read of pay gauging by contractors, and one is led to
believe, again by some and not all of these articles, that qualified
workers are staying away due to this as well.

Keep in mind too that Beijing is in "mad" preparation mode for the
2008 Olympics.  Everyone who can work is working in Beijing.  Why go
to Macau?  Somewhat like investors to this stock.  Why jump to MPEL
when MGM earnings are projected to rise another 10?

Hence, I remain stark in my present day assestment that MPEL (and
Macau) is a long-term play.  Casinos / hotels will open, some on time
and some delayed.  I predict though that come the end of this year,
especially with MPEL, we begin to see the fruits of these labors and
that in 2008 we see all of those "mainland" workers jump to Macau to
spur an economic catalyst much like we have seen the past years in
Beijing.  This too will be bolstered by China's continued relaxation
of travel and work restrictions.

Bottomline - I would be more concerned if MPEL was misappropriating
and potential delays were the fault of corporate mismanagement.  This
does not look to be the case, although I have observed changes in the
original designs based on competitive assessment.

Competition is a "good thing", and MPEL is an outstanding position to
earn outstanding profits beginning as soon as the third quarter, if
not sooner through an anicipated sub-concession sale.  I believe that
we may learn more on March 9th or thereabouts, and also from the
pictures of the new Mocha club, get a visual picture of the future -
bright indeed.

Here's to a great week!

Street does not look to theories and potential returns. The opening of
Crown Macau is already priced into MPEL's stock. If they announce a
delay in opening of Crown, the stock will get hammered down.

Morning.  I respectfully disagree.  I'm not sure that the complete
opening and short-term revenues from Mocha are factored in.  If it
was, I would say by my personal estimation that this should be a 22-25
stock.  I believe that once it gets to that level, then such is
factored.  I also believe that in the "smarts" of The Street.  I think
that there is a difference in a "delay" and a "delay by business".  No
one should doubt the shortage of labor.  However, as with all things,
money is a powerful motivator, and I am not personally worried, as I
believe that Ho/Packer would pay overruns / do what it takes to open
on time if it will.  I note that there is no "official" announcement
of an opening, and the April 28 date to my knowledge is speculation /
mention.  I would not think that an opening in the same quarter
damages the stock value, certainly not long-term.  "Hammer" is a very
strong word, and I think the 17's are the worse of it, short of
unsystematic risk changes.  At least in our speculation, we are
discussing here "systematic" risk, and the results are more
predictible.  I think we'll begin to get a very good idea of news
beginning next week.

Take Jennifer's post with a grain of salt. She is a bitter weak hand.
Please refer to her posts on the YAHOO MPEL BOARD to see what you are
dealing with.

Some links to Jennifer's MPEL POSTS FROM YAHOO"
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_M/thread...

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_M/thread...

Too many bashing posts to put them all here but check out when she
USED TO own mpel...

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_M/thread...

Enough Said....Close this Thread

Hi.  I have read them.  I think though that it is good to always get a
perspective different than yours, regardless of source.  For me
personally, it pushes me to conduct more in-depth research and
question my positions.

I would be wrong to say that I too do not have frustration here.  Then
again, I had frustration also with MC.  There is no question though
that this sector has had a marvelous short-term run, and that is
poised for outstanding future growth and earnings.  I do think though
with that said that it's become a "show me, don't promise me" sector.
I think when Chinese NY numbers are all in; when spring is "sprung"
that, following some lingering and an up/down summer, we'll see a nice
about face second half.  There is a lot of money out there.  Macau is
a great play, speculative as it is.  I have no regrets being down now
only that I didn't buy even cheaper than I originally did.  In the
end, I can't believe it will be a bust (end of this year and next).

Of course, I have no problem with people posting contrarian views,
that is what these boards are for.  But her bias and venom is so
obvious.  I just hope she doesn't poison this board like she has the
Yahoo board.

No, I wasn't implying anything that you were.  And, I agree.  It's
good to be objective here, and "poison" is most unwelcome.  Curious
what Wynn will do tomorrow as well as how MGM-Ho will go.  Perhaps why
the sector as a whole is down today?

WARNING
To my fellow google board members. Be very aware of this JENNIFER.SHEN
whatever character. She is all over the yahoo board and basically
pumps and then dumps the stock. She is basically a short term trader
that has no loyalty. The worst of the kind. I can respect bears and
shorts with convictions but she is the worst parasite possible. If she
owns MPEL she will talk it like the most passionate long but as soon
as she unloads she will bash it in hopes of getting in again at lower
price. On yahoo board she talking about  getting in at 16...last time
she got on at low 17's i believe. Be careful of any information that
disseminates as she is a low life of no comparison.

Under the deal, the joint venture between PBL and Lawrence Ho's Melco
will receive a percentage of gross gaming revenue from Mr Friedman,
the former chief counsel for Sheldon Adelson's Las Vegas Sands group.

A friend of mine who works for Progressive Gaming International has
flown to Macau a lot the last few months said the Crown was done (at
least from the casino view) and is flying back this summer to do
installs for LVS.

He said most of the management positions were being trained in Peth at
the casino there...I don't know how long it takes to train and hire
all the workers the Crown will need...but, the building will not be
the hold up.

The City of Dreams is a different story...they are passed grading and
have the foundation done but nothing else...a little behind.  The
other concern is the land confirmation...which my guess is they won't
address until the Crown is open and running.  Talk is they may get
back on schedule by toning down or getting rid of the underwater
casino for just a regular casino.  I think that will depend on how
successful the Crown is for 07.

The good news is the Crown has it's own travel companies to help
organize tours with day trippers and high rollers to fill the Crown.
Thus, can hit the ground strong. The Crown will have a strong
advertising presence and will place luxury ads in PBL magazines like
the Robb Report and Australian Gourmet Traveler.

It's a good place to get in if your looking...once the Crown is open
and future PE goes up -- you'd wish you had.

I see MelcoPBL as a long term investment not a quick trade.

Very nicely said, as always.  Insight always appreciated.  The City
delay does "worry" me a bit, but, as one who has been associated with
these projects, things have a tendency of gaining momentum once they
get moving.  Let's wait and see...here's to 22 - 25 sooner than later.

Thank you Clem. Good insight! Let's hope for a strong Crown execution.
It can sure change everything about this stock. KNKG you referred to a
sale  of a sub-concession to LVS? What is all about and how is it
gonna affect MPEL?Thanks

Hi.  Not to LVS but another casino that escapes me.  Stock here is
down today, but the "good" news is so is everyone else.  In addition
to a higher moving daily average, I'd love to see this stock start
tracking a mirror of LVS and WYNN.  That seems to be the case today at
least.  Perhaps again in anticipation of tomorrow.  Let's see what
happens.

Hi,

The yahoo postings reflect frustration because I was being bashed
endlessly.

My basic viewpoint is that this stock has a great future but that the
IPO was hyped.  I myself bought into the hype and took a small loss.

Basically, Credit Suisse forecasts about 500-600M earnings. in 2009.
At that point, most of the construction is done and building open.  So
I would apply a more conservative PE in 2009, say about 20 (reflecting
continued growth).

With those earnings you get about 1.49 per ADR, and with a PE of 20, a
share price of about 30 in 2009.

What would I pay for a stock which might be 30 in 2009 today?

Well Maybe 20.  But given additional risks, including construction
delays (not unlikely) and increasing supply, I think that 16 is a good
price for this stock.

That is my view.  Not poisonous, nor venomous. :)

You are lying. I have read your posts on Yahoo saying that you bought
at 17 and dumped at 18. You are telling everyone there to get out
before it goes to 16 tomorrow. Don't you be fooling anyone here. You
are a typical pump and dump trying to get in this board and spread
your lies. Other people on this board are very familiar with you. Just
stay over at yahoo. I don't mind shorts, but people like you are the
worst. You change your view on the stock depending on if you own it or
you just sold it and want to get back in at lower prices. MPEL
fundamentals don't change that fast. I am a long and have been
reloading on this all the way down and plan on doing some more. You
have no credibility or integrity so take your game somewhere else. Do
not poison this board with your deceit.

okay

I guess you're saying that my points in the message above are all
invalid.  That is your view, I suppose.  Good luck to you, and I will
post here as I please.

It is not the message my dear...it is the messenger....you have no
credibility and validity...It is like the boy that cried wolf. We can
all find and read those MSG independent from you. It is you motives
that are deceitful and despicable. You are trying to feed off of
people's fear for your own gain. I will make sure that me and my
fellow bloggers here will expose you and your motives whenever you
come on. This board is reclaimed and policed by decent people...short
or long. Take a position and stick with it unless the Company
changes....or your vision does. You are something else. Pump and dump
all day long. You contribute nothing and try to take everything. You
are a Parasite and I am sure that is not the first time you have been
called that or names similar. Good luck to you not only with your
stocks but in life.

aren't you nice.  judge jury and executioner you are.   but you've got
the wrong gal.  now leave me alone and kindly respond to the logic in
my post above.  Do you disagree w/ Credit Suisse estimates? My PE?  Me
risks for discounting?

This is an MPEL discussion board and not a place for you and I to chat
about my virtues or lack thereof.  Stick to MPEL and the other readers
will be so much happier.

S&P bullinsh on Macau:

The company has indicated confidence in growth prospects from Macau,
including a plan to add a second hotel at Wynn Macau, whose first
phase opened in 9/06. WYNN has also submitted an application for a
land concession for 52 acres in Macau's Cotai Strip area, where we
expect additional WYNN-related development could occur. In Las Vegas,
we look for a large WYNN expansion to open in early '09. We have
become more bullish on the Macau gaming market and raise our sum-of-
the-parts 12-month target price for WYNN shares to $90 from $80, still
below current price.
< Return to Previous

looks like you can't respond directly to my points.  no sense in
holding a logical conversation then now is there?

at least tell me if you disagree with not so hot Credit Suisse
earnings estimates and tell me why you disagree.  Do you disagree with
the PE ratio, and why?

Your post above is less specific than mine, when it talks about MPEL.
It is no doubt that we have growth in Macau.  But there are increasing
competitors and this can drop both margins and total revenue
forecasts, which impact earnings and limit growth, thus double whammy
to appropriate PE and to earnings per share.

The MPEL picture is good, but not flawless.  And at 18 bucks, the
shares are too expensive.  At least we should see 17s, and very
possibly 16s before I start buying.

To quote the venerable Stanley Ho:::when water rises all boats will be
lifted.

MPEL is long term play for me....the story makes sense to me. This is
not a scam. Both HO and Packer are billionaires that don't need a
quick scam IPO to get rich and ruin their good business name. They are
executing well based on our friend on location assessments. Macau is
the place to be for gambling. I don't care if it goes to 15.....at
$500,000 in this stock....I'll talk to you in "08 and '09 about my tax
consequences. I don't mess with you crazy day traders...I have a day
job. My previous investments IPO's were NYX, CME and HLYS.....I am
very happy about MPEL outlook. I just cannot stand folks like
yourself. I bet as soon as you jump on at 17 or 16 or whatever, you
will be fishing for every bit of good news to post and pump this. Get
a life!

seems to me you are gambling.  How can you buy a stock if you can't
even have a sense of the revenue forecast?

Credit Suisse has done a very rigorous one, and I'm sorry, but their
numbers do not justify the current stock price.  Throw in the Deutsche
Bank concerns, which I posted here first because of my due diligence
and Internet research, and now we realize that there are, in the
opinion of a major global investment bank (with more money than Ho),
that there are real risks to this venture.  They include oversupply
and construction delays.

You are a speculator and you don't know what you just got into.
Cramer is correct only 47% of the time, and his record with regard to
IPOs is beyond dismal.

Please, don't tell me to get a life.  I'm doing you a favor.

So what is burning you. Then don't buy it and move on to another
stock. You don't have a position. That would be doing us a favor.
Please don't buy!...lol! Thanks for your DD...lol!

Let me give you an answer, for the benefit of others.

Nothing burns me.  I am providing information.  This stock is
overpriced and people can get hurt.  I'll consider buying at 16.
Since I am a potential buyer, I am posting my views as to what I think
a good buy price is.

Since my buy price is below what you paid, you don't want me here.
That is your problem.

MPEL is overhyped and people got hurt.  I am telling the truth here.
All of you with losses know deep down I am telling the truth.

Like everything, there is a good price.  That price might be 16
assuming WYNN numbers do not disappoint.