> Hey Umberto. I sold 10K shares on Friday and loaded on puts to protect
> myself as I still hold 23K into earnings, average price $7. So I
> should be fine both ways. Expectation is for a loss o $.10 a share. I
> wouldn't be surprised if earnings are going to be positive by a few
> cents. But is it going to be enough to sustain the recent rally for
> this stock? I doubt it. What it's going to be interesting is the conf
> call. I bet, since this stock is heavily manipulated, that they are
> going to be questioned on a lot of things, Q-Cells, Nick Sarno,
> Polyplant update, secondary offering, etc... That's a lot of pressure
> to handle, and unless they have a compelling story to tell to
> investors, people will continue to be skeptical and drive the PPS
> lower. In the past they didn't handle pressure well during the conf
> calls when having to explain things. I don't expect that to change, I
> bet they are pretty nervous right now..... Having said that I would
> love to be positively surprised and if there's a 10%-15% pop I will
> definitely start selling calls. Overall I don't trust this market

> Davide

> Ciao Davide

> happy to hear from you !

> I do agree with your comments and join your view ..... ldk's
> management has proved to be unreliable over time and market is not
> giving them any confidence. Although results have largely beaten
> expectations, sp is still below 9.00. I still own some shares and some
> 2011 calls and will keep them into 2010. In meantime, have decided to
> move my interests in solar on CSIQ. It seems to have a more solid
> balance sheet. The major good sign for LDK is the local support from
> government. I assume thanks to the large jobs base of LDK.
> Overall, though, I don't trust this market either.

> On Nov 23, 10:21 am, davibroc <davib...@yahoo.com> wrote:

> > Hey Umberto. I sold 10K shares on Friday and loaded on puts to protect
> > myself as I still hold 23K into earnings, average price $7. So I
> > should be fine both ways. Expectation is for a loss o $.10 a share. I
> > wouldn't be surprised if earnings are going to be positive by a few
> > cents. But is it going to be enough to sustain the recent rally for
> > this stock? I doubt it. What it's going to be interesting is the conf
> > call. I bet, since this stock is heavily manipulated, that they are
> > going to be questioned on a lot of things, Q-Cells, Nick Sarno,
> > Polyplant update, secondary offering, etc... That's a lot of pressure
> > to handle, and unless they have a compelling story to tell to
> > investors, people will continue to be skeptical and drive the PPS
> > lower. In the past they didn't handle pressure well during the conf
> > calls when having to explain things. I don't expect that to change, I
> > bet they are pretty nervous right now..... Having said that I would
> > love to be positively surprised and if there's a 10%-15% pop I will
> > definitely start selling calls. Overall I don't trust this market

> > Davide

> Well I don’t know if people on this board understand what counting
> balls means… hehe… But I do, and after living in China for more then 2
> years, I can tell you that Chinese are pretty good at that….

> I am not convinced at the results LDK posted and something doesn’t add
> up to me. The 15% pop shows to me once again that this stocks is
> manipulated and I used the opportunity to buy more put. I am really
> curious to find out what analysts will say and if they will byte the
> bait. Here’s my list of concerns:

> 1)      They made 29 mil but 22 thanks of to write off reversals. That
> means they made only 7 mil which is about 6 cents a share.
> 2)      The first 13 reversal come from a ‘unspecified’ vendor so one is
> able to verify it it’s the truth.
> 3)      Government subsidies in the quarter  were about 30 mil RMB. One
> analyst pointed that the subsidies plus the reversal really was the
> greater part of the earnings in the quarter.
> 4)      When asked to comment about the Q-Cells who made up for the Q3
> shortfall they said that it’s thanks to sales in China and Asia,
> especially Taiwan. Again they didn’t mention any names, so one cannot
> double check if they are truthful. But the when asked about their
> geographic distributions for the shipments  they said that it is
> mainly from Europe and some from U.S. and very, very small from Asia.
> Go figure…
> 5)      They said that their interest rates are over 6% but on the balance
> sheet is recorded at 3%.
> 6)      They are selling their polypant to private investors, but I am
> still not clear about how that will affect earnings. I am sure they
> will pay premium return to their Chinese private firms. But what will
> be left for us investors?
> 7)      After Nick left, the management is all Chinese. That explained to
> me a lot of things, not to mention the confidence in their conf call…

> I am puzzled as to why people still buy or hold this stock, including,
> of course, myself.

> God bless Charlie Situ

> Although with regard to point 4) and 5) in your list there might be
> some explanations (wafer vs module different geo sales distributions
> and interests capitalization on poly plant / fixed assets up until it
> is completed - very dangerous by the way), I totally agree on your
> concerns .... as I said, my only hope is this company turning to be a
> module producer rather than staying as wafers producer ..... but
> that's about it.
> The poly plant has been a crazy choice and they are trying to minimise
> the damage .... whatever they do, most of the damage won't be cured
> out. Any investor would look for a return on it. Which will end up to
> be in any case a "cost", in any form, for LDK. Much better if they
> didn't invest a penny in poly production. LDK unless supported by
> govnt for many many years to come would get close to insolvency.
> Fortunately, they offer almost 14.000 permanent jobs and therefore may
> get a permanent support. But for sure will not distribute any dividend
> in the next ten years, should they survive.

> On Nov 24, 6:17 am, davibroc <davib...@yahoo.com> wrote:

> > Well I don’t know if people on this board understand what counting
> > balls means… hehe… But I do, and after living in China for more then 2
> > years, I can tell you that Chinese are pretty good at that….

> > I am not convinced at the results LDK posted and something doesn’t add
> > up to me. The 15% pop shows to me once again that this stocks is
> > manipulated and I used the opportunity to buy more put. I am really
> > curious to find out what analysts will say and if they will byte the
> > bait. Here’s my list of concerns:

> > 1)      They made 29 mil but 22 thanks of to write off reversals. That
> > means they made only 7 mil which is about 6 cents a share.
> > 2)      The first 13 reversal come from a ‘unspecified’ vendor so one is
> > able to verify it it’s the truth.
> > 3)      Government subsidies in the quarter  were about 30 mil RMB. One
> > analyst pointed that the subsidies plus the reversal really was the
> > greater part of the earnings in the quarter.
> > 4)      When asked to comment about the Q-Cells who made up for the Q3
> > shortfall they said that it’s thanks to sales in China and Asia,
> > especially Taiwan. Again they didn’t mention any names, so one cannot
> > double check if they are truthful. But the when asked about their
> > geographic distributions for the shipments  they said that it is
> > mainly from Europe and some from U.S. and very, very small from Asia.
> > Go figure…
> > 5)      They said that their interest rates are over 6% but on the balance
> > sheet is recorded at 3%.
> > 6)      They are selling their polypant to private investors, but I am
> > still not clear about how that will affect earnings. I am sure they
> > will pay premium return to their Chinese private firms. But what will
> > be left for us investors?
> > 7)      After Nick left, the management is all Chinese. That explained to
> > me a lot of things, not to mention the confidence in their conf call…

> > I am puzzled as to why people still buy or hold this stock, including,
> > of course, myself.

> > God bless Charlie Situ

> Dave, are you around ?
> Would like to comment on recent developments ......
> I am impressed they launched an offering days ago and there's no info
> yet on how it finished ...... neither we got any feed back on over-
> allotment option ...... which is normally very relevant on market
> confidence and reaction ..... It seems to me this offering didn't go
> so well ...... any thoughts ?
> ciao
> U

> On Nov 24, 4:07 pm, umbisam <umberto.vitie...@realtypartners.it>
> wrote:

> > Although with regard to point 4) and 5) in your list there might be
> > some explanations (wafer vs module different geo sales distributions
> > and interests capitalization on poly plant / fixed assets up until it
> > is completed - very dangerous by the way), I totally agree on your
> > concerns .... as I said, my only hope is this company turning to be a
> > module producer rather than staying as wafers producer ..... but
> > that's about it.
> > The poly plant has been a crazy choice and they are trying to minimise
> > the damage .... whatever they do, most of the damage won't be cured
> > out. Any investor would look for a return on it. Which will end up to
> > be in any case a "cost", in any form, for LDK. Much better if they
> > didn't invest a penny in poly production. LDK unless supported by
> > govnt for many many years to come would get close to insolvency.
> > Fortunately, they offer almost 14.000 permanent jobs and therefore may
> > get a permanent support. But for sure will not distribute any dividend
> > in the next ten years, should they survive.

> > On Nov 24, 6:17 am, davibroc <davib...@yahoo.com> wrote:

> > > Well I don’t know if people on this board understand what counting
> > > balls means… hehe… But I do, and after living in China for more then 2
> > > years, I can tell you that Chinese are pretty good at that….

> > > I am not convinced at the results LDK posted and something doesn’t add
> > > up to me. The 15% pop shows to me once again that this stocks is
> > > manipulated and I used the opportunity to buy more put. I am really
> > > curious to find out what analysts will say and if they will byte the
> > > bait. Here’s my list of concerns:

> > > 1)      They made 29 mil but 22 thanks of to write off reversals. That
> > > means they made only 7 mil which is about 6 cents a share.
> > > 2)      The first 13 reversal come from a ‘unspecified’ vendor so one is
> > > able to verify it it’s the truth.
> > > 3)      Government subsidies in the quarter  were about 30 mil RMB. One
> > > analyst pointed that the subsidies plus the reversal really was the
> > > greater part of the earnings in the quarter.
> > > 4)      When asked to comment about the Q-Cells who made up for the Q3
> > > shortfall they said that it’s thanks to sales in China and Asia,
> > > especially Taiwan. Again they didn’t mention any names, so one cannot
> > > double check if they are truthful. But the when asked about their
> > > geographic distributions for the shipments  they said that it is
> > > mainly from Europe and some from U.S. and very, very small from Asia.
> > > Go figure…
> > > 5)      They said that their interest rates are over 6% but on the balance
> > > sheet is recorded at 3%.
> > > 6)      They are selling their polypant to private investors, but I am
> > > still not clear about how that will affect earnings. I am sure they
> > > will pay premium return to their Chinese private firms. But what will
> > > be left for us investors?
> > > 7)      After Nick left, the management is all Chinese. That explained to
> > > me a lot of things, not to mention the confidence in their conf call…

> > > I am puzzled as to why people still buy or hold this stock, including,
> > > of course, myself.

> > > God bless Charlie Situ