> I was shocked yesterday when Rodman & Renshaw downgraded FUQI to
> HOLD.  When I found the actual explanation I was even more baffled…the
> only point was: mgmt needs to keep your earnings growing and prove
> retail growth strategy. First of all, what about the wholesale growth
> – that is more that 90% FUQI's business. Second, you have always
> beaten estimates – one doesn’t DOWNGRADE for an 18 P/E.  Every other
> analyst is a Strong BUY or OUTPERFORM.

> Then I saw the news item below – released the same morning.  Is there
> is a connection between the two, and a real conflict of  interest
> here? Does Rodman & Renshaw want to gran some awareness as they try to
> sell 4 million shares of NEP.  BTW R&R is ranked 55th in accuracy and
> right 40% of the time?!

> So, the PEG is .57 – thus, FUQI at $32 is actually very inexpensive
> when the growth is taken into account.  I am sure the Q3 earnings will
> bear out the truth of this excellently managed company’s performance.
> And the absurdity of the downgrade

> FUQI is a great way to play gold.  The Chinese are flocking to buy
> gold right now.  Profits will continue to go up.

> http://www.ShootTheBears.com

> On Sep 17, 8:57 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > I was shocked yesterday when Rodman & Renshaw downgraded FUQI to
> > HOLD.  When I found the actual explanation I was even more baffled…the
> > only point was: mgmt needs to keep your earnings growing and prove
> > retail growth strategy. First of all, what about the wholesale growth
> > – that is more that 90% FUQI's business. Second, you have always
> > beaten estimates – one doesn’t DOWNGRADE for an 18 P/E.  Every other
> > analyst is a Strong BUY or OUTPERFORM.

> > Then I saw the news item below – released the same morning.  Is there
> > is a connection between the two, and a real conflict of  interest
> > here? Does Rodman & Renshaw want to gran some awareness as they try to
> > sell 4 million shares of NEP.  BTW R&R is ranked 55th in accuracy and
> > right 40% of the time?!

> > So, the PEG is .57 – thus, FUQI at $32 is actually very inexpensive
> > when the growth is taken into account.  I am sure the Q3 earnings will
> > bear out the truth of this excellently managed company’s performance.
> > And the absurdity of the downgrade

> 40 dollars by Jan 1st

> On Sep 17, 11:41 am, ZachZaw <zzawar...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > FUQI is a great way to play gold.  The Chinese are flocking to buy
> > gold right now.  Profits will continue to go up.

> >http://www.ShootTheBears.com

> > On Sep 17, 8:57 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > I was shocked yesterday when Rodman & Renshaw downgraded FUQI to
> > > HOLD.  When I found the actual explanation I was even more baffled…the
> > > only point was: mgmt needs to keep your earnings growing and prove
> > > retail growth strategy. First of all, what about the wholesale growth
> > > – that is more that 90% FUQI's business. Second, you have always
> > > beaten estimates – one doesn’t DOWNGRADE for an 18 P/E.  Every other
> > > analyst is a Strong BUY or OUTPERFORM.

> > > Then I saw the news item below – released the same morning.  Is there
> > > is a connection between the two, and a real conflict of  interest
> > > here? Does Rodman & Renshaw want to gran some awareness as they try to
> > > sell 4 million shares of NEP.  BTW R&R is ranked 55th in accuracy and
> > > right 40% of the time?!

> > > So, the PEG is .57 – thus, FUQI at $32 is actually very inexpensive
> > > when the growth is taken into account.  I am sure the Q3 earnings will
> > > bear out the truth of this excellently managed company’s performance.
> > > And the absurdity of the downgrade- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> yes. agreed Sergio. maybe even Dec 1st after Q3 dramatically beats
> expectations.  Bought even more today - glad for the opportunity.

> On Sep 18, 11:55 am, Sergio <subliminal1...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > 40 dollars by Jan 1st

> > On Sep 17, 11:41 am, ZachZaw <zzawar...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > FUQI is a great way to play gold.  The Chinese are flocking to buy
> > > gold right now.  Profits will continue to go up.

> > >http://www.ShootTheBears.com

> > > On Sep 17, 8:57 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > I was shocked yesterday when Rodman & Renshaw downgraded FUQI to
> > > > HOLD.  When I found the actual explanation I was even more baffled…the
> > > > only point was: mgmt needs to keep your earnings growing and prove
> > > > retail growth strategy. First of all, what about the wholesale growth
> > > > – that is more that 90% FUQI's business. Second, you have always
> > > > beaten estimates – one doesn’t DOWNGRADE for an 18 P/E.  Every other
> > > > analyst is a Strong BUY or OUTPERFORM.

> > > > Then I saw the news item below – released the same morning.  Is there
> > > > is a connection between the two, and a real conflict of  interest
> > > > here? Does Rodman & Renshaw want to gran some awareness as they try to
> > > > sell 4 million shares of NEP.  BTW R&R is ranked 55th in accuracy and
> > > > right 40% of the time?!

> > > > So, the PEG is .57 – thus, FUQI at $32 is actually very inexpensive
> > > > when the growth is taken into account.  I am sure the Q3 earnings will
> > > > bear out the truth of this excellently managed company’s performance.
> > > > And the absurdity of the downgrade- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -

> I was shocked yesterday when Rodman & Renshaw downgraded FUQI to
> HOLD.  When I found the actual explanation I was even more baffled…the
> only point was: mgmt needs to keep your earnings growing and prove
> retail growth strategy. First of all, what about the wholesale growth
> – that is more that 90% FUQI's business. Second, you have always
> beaten estimates – one doesn’t DOWNGRADE for an 18 P/E.  Every other
> analyst is a Strong BUY or OUTPERFORM.

> Then I saw the news item below – released the same morning.  Is there
> is a connection between the two, and a real conflict of  interest
> here? Does Rodman & Renshaw want to gran some awareness as they try to
> sell 4 million shares of NEP.  BTW R&R is ranked 55th in accuracy and
> right 40% of the time?!

> So, the PEG is .57 – thus, FUQI at $32 is actually very inexpensive
> when the growth is taken into account.  I am sure the Q3 earnings will
> bear out the truth of this excellently managed company’s performance.
> And the absurdity of the downgrade

> I was shocked yesterday when Rodman & Renshaw downgraded FUQI to
> HOLD.  When I found the actual explanation I was even more baffled…the
> only point was: mgmt needs to keep your earnings growing and prove
> retail growth strategy. First of all, what about the wholesale growth
> – that is more that 90% FUQI's business. Second, you have always
> beaten estimates – one doesn’t DOWNGRADE for an 18 P/E.  Every other
> analyst is a Strong BUY or OUTPERFORM.

> Then I saw the news item below – released the same morning.  Is there
> is a connection between the two, and a real conflict of  interest
> here? Does Rodman & Renshaw want to gran some awareness as they try to
> sell 4 million shares of NEP.  BTW R&R is ranked 55th in accuracy and
> right 40% of the time?!

> So, the PEG is .57 – thus, FUQI at $32 is actually very inexpensive
> when the growth is taken into account.  I am sure the Q3 earnings will
> bear out the truth of this excellently managed company’s performance.
> And the absurdity of the downgrade

> On Sep 17, 8:57 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > I was shocked yesterday when Rodman & Renshaw downgraded FUQI to
> > HOLD.  When I found the actual explanation I was even more baffled…the
> > only point was: mgmt needs to keep your earnings growing and prove
> > retail growth strategy. First of all, what about the wholesale growth
> > – that is more that 90% FUQI's business. Second, you have always
> > beaten estimates – one doesn’t DOWNGRADE for an 18 P/E.  Every other
> > analyst is a Strong BUY or OUTPERFORM.

> > Then I saw the news item below – released the same morning.  Is there
> > is a connection between the two, and a real conflict of  interest
> > here? Does Rodman & Renshaw want to gran some awareness as they try to
> > sell 4 million shares of NEP.  BTW R&R is ranked 55th in accuracy and
> > right 40% of the time?!

> > So, the PEG is .57 – thus, FUQI at $32 is actually very inexpensive
> > when the growth is taken into account.  I am sure the Q3 earnings will
> > bear out the truth of this excellently managed company’s performance.
> > And the absurdity of the downgrade

> They DIDN'T downgrade it to HOLD; they changed it to MKT PERFORM from
> MKT OUTPERFORM. What are you talking about? Please change your post--
> you are unnecessarily scaring people.

> On Sep 17, 8:57 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > I was shocked yesterday when Rodman & Renshaw downgraded FUQI to
> > HOLD.  When I found the actual explanation I was even more baffled…the
> > only point was: mgmt needs to keep your earnings growing and prove
> > retail growth strategy. First of all, what about the wholesale growth
> > – that is more that 90% FUQI's business. Second, you have always
> > beaten estimates – one doesn’t DOWNGRADE for an 18 P/E.  Every other
> > analyst is a Strong BUY or OUTPERFORM.

> > Then I saw the news item below – released the same morning.  Is there
> > is a connection between the two, and a real conflict of  interest
> > here? Does Rodman & Renshaw want to gran some awareness as they try to
> > sell 4 million shares of NEP.  BTW R&R is ranked 55th in accuracy and
> > right 40% of the time?!

> > So, the PEG is .57 – thus, FUQI at $32 is actually very inexpensive
> > when the growth is taken into account.  I am sure the Q3 earnings will
> > bear out the truth of this excellently managed company’s performance.
> > And the absurdity of the downgrade- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> Investopedia "Market Perform:  "The phrase "market perform" tends to
> be a fairly lukewarm recommendation overall. A preferred investment
> vehicle would be one that is expected to outperform, or do better
> than, leading market averages. A "market perform" rating can be
> equated to such ratings as "hold" or "peer perform".   So, semantics,
> but yes - you are right - Market Perform is their terminology.

> My whole point was that this downgrade was from the 55th most accurate
> service - 40% accurate - one is wrong more than right on the stocks
> they cover - and it made a splash for R&R the same day they announced
> the had 4 million shares of NEP to sell - as they knew it would. I
> raised the question of objectivity/

> I bought more today.  I own a tremendous amount of FUQI - 5 digit
> shares - and bought even more today. it got cheap because some
> institution decided it was time for "profit taking."  i believ it is
> that simple.  My honest post was meant to express a well reasoned and
> researched POV that this is a very inexpensive stock at $32.  if you
> know PEG ratio's - you know under a 1 is very inexpensive. Look at
> FUQI on Zacks PEG ratio chart.   FUQI is .58 - [the whole market is
> 2.1] - by the time it goes up enough to be at a low 1 - the new
> earnings will have dropped it down.  Thus, i literally see it rising
> powerfully and steadily - and staying both a growth and a value stock
> - amazingly enough - for many, many YEARS. As the chises middle class
> grows dramatically - so will your holdings in this well managed
> comapny.  I believe I will still be holding ALL my shares - I started
> buying at $11.53 in May and I only BUY - in 2013 when i retire...just
> so you know where I stand on the matter.   The consensus Q2 earnings
> projection was 28-32 cents a share.  I predicted 45 cents and it was
> exactly that.  Now the mean projection 43 cents for Q3; well in
> November, my best is that it is more like 55 cents - if past
> performance and logic hold...don't you think July-Sept will be
> stronger than April-June 2009 in the country that put half a trillion
> in stimulus to work and is growing 8% a year??  i know i do and if it
> is much higher, and sideline money is coming into the market - and
> awareness of global portfolio balancing is growing in the U.S. - wow!
> So, i sleep well with FUQI dominating my portfolio - days like today
> or not.  Actually, I might be leaving this one to the kids - like the
> old days - that is how great and long term I see their opportunity to
> consolidate the fragmented market in China to be.

> Sorry i rambled - I could say more - Did I mention they have no debt?
> but have over $100 million form the summer's secondary offering to out
> to work so they can distribute in more provinces as wholesales - which
> is 90% of their business and grow the retail business... China will
> become the #1 luxury goods market in the world by 2013! ...to me, this
> is literally the best growth and value and this safety story I can
> identify - in the world.  OK - i am done.  peace.

> On Sep 18, 4:45 pm, Heather <violetrin...@aol.com> wrote:

> > They DIDN'T downgrade it to HOLD; they changed it to MKT PERFORM from
> > MKT OUTPERFORM. What are you talking about? Please change your post--
> > you are unnecessarily scaring people.

> > On Sep 17, 8:57 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > I was shocked yesterday when Rodman & Renshaw downgraded FUQI to
> > > HOLD.  When I found the actual explanation I was even more baffled…the
> > > only point was: mgmt needs to keep your earnings growing and prove
> > > retail growth strategy. First of all, what about the wholesale growth
> > > – that is more that 90% FUQI's business. Second, you have always
> > > beaten estimates – one doesn’t DOWNGRADE for an 18 P/E.  Every other
> > > analyst is a Strong BUY or OUTPERFORM.

> > > Then I saw the news item below – released the same morning.  Is there
> > > is a connection between the two, and a real conflict of  interest
> > > here? Does Rodman & Renshaw want to gran some awareness as they try to
> > > sell 4 million shares of NEP.  BTW R&R is ranked 55th in accuracy and
> > > right 40% of the time?!

> > > So, the PEG is .57 – thus, FUQI at $32 is actually very inexpensive
> > > when the growth is taken into account.  I am sure the Q3 earnings will
> > > bear out the truth of this excellently managed company’s performance.
> > > And the absurdity of the downgrade- Hide quoted text -

> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

> - Show quoted text -

> Jackson, you sound sincere. I am sorry, but I disagree strongly with
> your sentiment.
> Let me make a bear case on fuqi.I am looking forward to a meaningful
> discussion.

> Now well, OK, let us dig a bit deeper into this.
> First off, I was fuqi fan and long since about $15 to $27. Now I am
> building a short position, which
> is not easy since my broker rarely has any shares availkable to short.
> Of course, back at $3, it was
> an excellent buy, you'd have to be totally insane to short it there or
> even at $15. Too bad I wasn't aware of the stock back then.
> Their inventory was worth more than their market cap. Then again,
> perhaps people weren't so sure how they valued their inventory?

> Now fuqi is clearly overextended. Let me explain why I think it is no
> longer a sound long investment.
> 1. It is no longer cheap, by any reasonable valuation metrics. PE of
> 18 for a Chinese jeweler is right away
> expensive. Remember, this is a Chinese company with Chinese
> operations, not with US operations. There is a
> difference. Chinese accounting standards are quite a bit more lax.
> There are definitive signs, if you look at
> fuqi reports and listen to their calls (did you listen to them?), that
> they book as revenue goods they supply to counterparties that have
> not yet been sold or paid for. Stuffing sales channels ahead of the
> secondary they ran this year is another distinct
> possibility. I am not saying all this is necessarily true, or that
> fuqi is a worthless bunch of cheaters. But there
> are definitve risks that warrant much more modest valuation. The
> potential for their explosive growth is very
> questionable too. Go to their web site and check out recruitment.
> There is none. Does it ring true for a company
> that is supposed to grow so fast? Basically, fuqi is running on pure
> momentum right now - and momentum is a fickle thing
> that can turn easily. In my view, the latest fuqi can sell off is mid-
> next year. What I heard is that it is
> this year that is regarded as a particularly good year to marry in
> China. So next year, there will likely be a drop. By mid-year,
> it will be obvious, and stock will sell off hard then - at latest. But
> there are lots of reasons it
> can sell off earlier, of course.
> 2. I do not know how you regard the current world markets rally. May
> be you are a convinced bull. I am not. I think
> that as soon as clunkers and new home buyer credit run out, it will be
> clear that the US economy is not rebounding
> as well as hoped. We are talking before New Year, likely. Other
> countries have their own serious problems, inluding China.
> I do not think fuqi with its high valuation will survive the downdraft
> - it will likely crash.
> 3. Fuqi is #1 on IBD100. I do not know if you at all follow this list
> and how long. I do for a while. All stocks
> that get to be IBD #1 share the same curious pattern: they run up,
> sometimes a lot. And then one day they crash,
> and when they crash, they usually go down roughly to the level when
> they got on the list in the first place.
> The reason, in my view, is simple. The list attracts a certain kind of
> investors, impatient momentum players.
> While they can keep the ball rolling, squeezing the shorts and
> attracting greater fools, they stay in. But if
> they feel the change in direction or if momentum is waning, they bail
> quickly, crashing the stock. I have seen it many
> times. I do not think this time will be any different. To me, it is
> not a matter of if but when and at what price.

> Given all these aspects, I feel shorting fuqi is the safest investment
> in the world right now - if you do it in reasonable size.
> My short target size is just 5% of my portfolio. Fuqi runs to $100 - I
> am OK, I'll be only adding. Now of course, I'd prefer it
> crashed sooner than later, as it ties up my capital. That is partly
> the reason I am typing this message - no secret here.
> But I can wait.

> Let me know what do you think! Thanks.

> On Sep 18, 4:27 pm, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Investopedia "Market Perform:  "The phrase "market perform" tends to
> > be a fairly lukewarm recommendation overall. A preferred investment
> > vehicle would be one that is expected to outperform, or do better
> > than, leading market averages. A "market perform" rating can be
> > equated to such ratings as "hold" or "peer perform".   So, semantics,
> > but yes - you are right - Market Perform is their terminology.

> > My whole point was that this downgrade was from the 55th most accurate
> > service - 40% accurate - one is wrong more than right on the stocks
> > they cover - and it made a splash for R&R the same day they announced
> > the had 4 million shares of NEP to sell - as they knew it would. I
> > raised the question of objectivity/

> > I bought more today.  I own a tremendous amount of FUQI - 5 digit
> > shares - and bought even more today. it got cheap because some
> > institution decided it was time for "profit taking."  i believ it is
> > that simple.  My honest post was meant to express a well reasoned and
> > researched POV that this is a very inexpensive stock at $32.  if you
> > know PEG ratio's - you know under a 1 is very inexpensive. Look at
> > FUQI on Zacks PEG ratio chart.   FUQI is .58 - [the whole market is
> > 2.1] - by the time it goes up enough to be at a low 1 - the new
> > earnings will have dropped it down.  Thus, i literally see it rising
> > powerfully and steadily - and staying both a growth and a value stock
> > - amazingly enough - for many, many YEARS. As the chises middle class
> > grows dramatically - so will your holdings in this well managed
> > comapny.  I believe I will still be holding ALL my shares - I started
> > buying at $11.53 in May and I only BUY - in 2013 when i retire...just
> > so you know where I stand on the matter.   The consensus Q2 earnings
> > projection was 28-32 cents a share.  I predicted 45 cents and it was
> > exactly that.  Now the mean projection 43 cents for Q3; well in
> > November, my best is that it is more like 55 cents - if past
> > performance and logic hold...don't you think July-Sept will be
> > stronger than April-June 2009 in the country that put half a trillion
> > in stimulus to work and is growing 8% a year??  i know i do and if it
> > is much higher, and sideline money is coming into the market - and
> > awareness of global portfolio balancing is growing in the U.S. - wow!
> > So, i sleep well with FUQI dominating my portfolio - days like today
> > or not.  Actually, I might be leaving this one to the kids - like the
> > old days - that is how great and long term I see their opportunity to
> > consolidate the fragmented market in China to be.

> > Sorry i rambled - I could say more - Did I mention they have no debt?
> > but have over $100 million form the summer's secondary offering to out
> > to work so they can distribute in more provinces as wholesales - which
> > is 90% of their business and grow the retail business... China will
> > become the #1 luxury goods market in the world by 2013! ...to me, this
> > is literally the best growth and value and this safety story I can
> > identify - in the world.  OK - i am done.  peace.

> > On Sep 18, 4:45 pm, Heather <violetrin...@aol.com> wrote:

> > > They DIDN'T

> High integrity FUQI has better Audit Integrity scores than many
> American blue chip companies: "Fuqi International, Inc. is currently
> rated as having Aggressive Accounting & Governance Risk (AGR®),
> receiving an AGR score that places them in the 17th percentile among
> the approximately 8,000 companies in North America rated by Audit
> Integrity, indicating higher accounting and governance risk than 83%
> of the other companies."  That is a North American standard. Apple the
> 10th. Alcoa is in the 9th percentile. Ford the 8th. P&G the 2nd!  IBM
> in the 6th.  FUQI has bent over backwards to offer accounting that we
> can trust here...wisely. You sound sincere too, but your questioning
> of FUQI integrity was reckless and unfounded.

> So, yes, I have been on the calls.  I was quite impressed.  I think
> the Chinese jewelry industry will consolidate and the luxury market
> will grow. This management team will be one of the big winners in my
> view,  Simultanepously, the emerging middle class in China will be a
> rolling phenomenon for a long time.  The Chinese saved - we spent.
> They are capital rich - we are debtors.  I love my country as much as
> any American - but I see us as so divisive politically right now we
> can't act intelligently to address our economic problems.  We can't
> even get the stimulus spent and working - 2010 and 2011?!  Just in
> time to be inflationary. The growth leader will be China for quite a
> while - then we will comeback - as so will my money...that is my
> view,

> A P/E on a company that is growing rapidly of under 20 is inexpensive
> in my veiw. People chase momentum stocks and get burned because they
> buy them when the P/Es are already in the 30s and even a great company
> can't meet the expectations that implies.  FUQI's P/E is half that.
> FUQI in the $30s makes some people nervous and want to play a rollback
> because it is up tenfold - and it reminds people of that trend - but
> it was just that absurdly cheap in March - as you well describe.  I
> get that...and there will be volitility - maybe big swings - as people
> take profits. I will sail through them...serenely. Because I think
> they win BIG long term.  You may know how yo play the markets
> vicissitudes - I don't know when a fund will choose to get out - like
> Friday - or get in. You may Afavor - you sound smart - and
> exoerienced.  So, anyway - ther we have the long and the short view -
> I guess that is what makes a market.

> On Sep 19, 10:18 am, afavorsky <afavor...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Jackson, you sound sincere. I am sorry, but I disagree strongly with
> > your sentiment.
> > Let me make a bear case on fuqi.I am looking forward to a meaningful
> > discussion.

> > Now well, OK, let us dig a bit deeper into this.
> > First off, I was fuqi fan and long since about $15 to $27. Now I am
> > building a short position, which
> > is not easy since my broker rarely has any shares availkable to short.
> > Of course, back at $3, it was
> > an excellent buy, you'd have to be totally insane to short it there or
> > even at $15. Too bad I wasn't aware of the stock back then.
> > Their inventory was worth more than their market cap. Then again,
> > perhaps people weren't so sure how they valued their inventory?

> > Now fuqi is clearly overextended. Let me explain why I think it is no
> > longer a sound long investment.
> > 1. It is no longer cheap, by any reasonable valuation metrics. PE of
> > 18 for a Chinese jeweler is right away
> > expensive. Remember, this is a Chinese company with Chinese
> > operations, not with US operations. There is a
> > difference. Chinese accounting standards are quite a bit more lax.
> > There are definitive signs, if you look at
> > fuqi reports and listen to their calls (did you listen to them?), that
> > they book as revenue goods they supply to counterparties that have
> > not yet been sold or paid for. Stuffing sales channels ahead of the
> > secondary they ran this year is another distinct
> > possibility. I am not saying all this is necessarily true, or that
> > fuqi is a worthless bunch of cheaters. But there
> > are definitve risks that warrant much more modest valuation. The
> > potential for their explosive growth is very
> > questionable too. Go to their web site and check out recruitment.
> > There is none. Does it ring true for a company
> > that is supposed to grow so fast? Basically, fuqi is running on pure
> > momentum right now - and momentum is a fickle thing
> > that can turn easily. In my view, the latest fuqi can sell off is mid-
> > next year. What I heard is that it is
> > this year that is regarded as a particularly good year to marry in
> > China. So next year, there will likely be a drop. By mid-year,
> > it will be obvious, and stock will sell off hard then - at latest. But
> > there are lots of reasons it
> > can sell off earlier, of course.
> > 2. I do not know how you regard the current world markets rally. May
> > be you are a convinced bull. I am not. I think
> > that as soon as clunkers and new home buyer credit run out, it will be
> > clear that the US economy is not rebounding
> > as well as hoped. We are talking before New Year, likely. Other
> > countries have their own serious problems, inluding China.
> > I do not think fuqi with its high valuation will survive the downdraft
> > - it will likely crash.
> > 3. Fuqi is #1 on IBD100. I do not know if you at all follow this list
> > and how long. I do for a while. All stocks
> > that get to be IBD #1 share the same curious pattern: they run up,
> > sometimes a lot. And then one day they crash,
> > and when they crash, they usually go down roughly to the level when
> > they got on the list in the first place.
> > The reason, in my view, is simple. The list attracts a certain kind of
> > investors, impatient momentum players.
> > While they can keep the ball rolling, squeezing the shorts and
> > attracting greater fools, they stay in. But if
> > they feel the change in direction or if momentum is waning, they bail
> > quickly, crashing the stock. I have seen it many
> > times. I do not think this time will be any different. To me, it is
> > not a matter of if but when and at what price.

> > Given all these aspects, I feel shorting fuqi is the safest investment
> > in the world right now - if you do it in reasonable size.
> > My short target size is just 5% of my portfolio. Fuqi runs to $100 - I
> > am OK, I'll be only adding. Now of course, I'd prefer it
> > crashed sooner than later, as it ties up my capital. That is partly
> > the reason I am typing this message - no secret here.
> > But I can wait.

> > Let me know what do you think! Thanks.

> > On Sep 18, 4:27 pm, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Investopedia "Market Perform:  "The phrase "market perform" tends to
> > > be a fairly lukewarm recommendation overall. A preferred investment
> > > vehicle would be one that is expected to outperform, or do better
> > > than, leading market averages. A "market perform" rating can be
> > > equated to such ratings as "hold" or "peer perform".   So, semantics,
> > > but yes - you are right - Market Perform is their terminology.

> > > My whole point was that this downgrade was from the 55th most accurate
> > > service - 40% accurate - one is wrong more than right on the stocks
> > > they cover - and it made a splash for R&R the same day they announced
> > > the had 4 million shares of NEP to sell - as they knew it would. I
> > > raised the question of objectivity/

> > > I bought more today.  I own a tremendous amount of FUQI - 5 digit
> > > shares - and bought even more today. it got cheap because some
> > > institution decided it was time for "profit taking."  i believ it is
> > > that simple.  My honest post was meant to express a well reasoned and
> > > researched POV that this is a very inexpensive stock at $32.  if you
> > > know PEG ratio's - you know under a 1 is very inexpensive. Look at
> > > FUQI on Zacks PEG ratio chart.   FUQI is .58 - [the whole market is
> > > 2.1] - by the time it goes up enough to be at a low 1 - the new
> > > earnings will have dropped it down.  Thus, i literally see it rising
> > > powerfully and steadily - and staying both a growth and a value stock
> > > - amazingly enough - for many, many YEARS. As the chises middle class
> > > grows dramatically - so will your holdings in this well managed
> > > comapny.  I believe I will still be holding ALL my shares - I started
> > > buying at $11.53 in May and I only BUY - in 2013 when i

> afavorsky, your reliance on FUQI's PE at 18 is faulty.  First, we all
> know that the PE ratio is a BACKWARD looking indicator.  This company
> actually has a FORWARD PE ratio of approximately 14.  Considering
> they've had EPS of $0.45 the last two quarters and I'm assuming the
> next two quarters come in at $0.47 and $0.53, and that's a
> conservative estimate -- they could very well do $0.53 and $0.57, at a
> stock price of $28.35, this company has a PE ratio of 14.17-14.92.
> Tiffany's (TIF) has a PE of 30!

> Additionally, shareholders are willing to pay a premium in terms of PE
> for companies with GROWING revenue, such as FUQI.  Look at Apple,
> Google, Starent.  Granted, those are all tech stocks, but they have
> PE's of 32, 34, and 29, respectively.  I don't think you'll find
> anyone who will argue that those are bad stocks to be in because the
> PE ratio is too high.  In fact, 9/10 people will say that these are
> still good stocks to buy, even at their current prices because they
> continue to grow their earnings and revenue.

> After taking those factors into consideration, FUQI at $28.35 is
> looking pretty cheep.  Don't you agree?

> http://www.ShootTheBears.com

> On Sep 19, 11:09 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > High integrity FUQI has better Audit Integrity scores than many
> > American blue chip companies: "Fuqi International, Inc. is currently
> > rated as having Aggressive Accounting & Governance Risk (AGR®),
> > receiving an AGR score that places them in the 17th percentile among
> > the approximately 8,000 companies in North America rated by Audit
> > Integrity, indicating higher accounting and governance risk than 83%
> > of the other companies."  That is a North American standard. Apple the
> > 10th. Alcoa is in the 9th percentile. Ford the 8th. P&G the 2nd!  IBM
> > in the 6th.  FUQI has bent over backwards to offer accounting that we
> > can trust here...wisely. You sound sincere too, but your questioning
> > of FUQI integrity was reckless and unfounded.

> > So, yes, I have been on the calls.  I was quite impressed.  I think
> > the Chinese jewelry industry will consolidate and the luxury market
> > will grow. This management team will be one of the big winners in my
> > view,  Simultanepously, the emerging middle class in China will be a
> > rolling phenomenon for a long time.  The Chinese saved - we spent.
> > They are capital rich - we are debtors.  I love my country as much as
> > any American - but I see us as so divisive politically right now we
> > can't act intelligently to address our economic problems.  We can't
> > even get the stimulus spent and working - 2010 and 2011?!  Just in
> > time to be inflationary. The growth leader will be China for quite a
> > while - then we will comeback - as so will my money...that is my
> > view,

> > A P/E on a company that is growing rapidly of under 20 is inexpensive
> > in my veiw. People chase momentum stocks and get burned because they
> > buy them when the P/Es are already in the 30s and even a great company
> > can't meet the expectations that implies.  FUQI's P/E is half that.
> > FUQI in the $30s makes some people nervous and want to play a rollback
> > because it is up tenfold - and it reminds people of that trend - but
> > it was just that absurdly cheap in March - as you well describe.  I
> > get that...and there will be volitility - maybe big swings - as people
> > take profits. I will sail through them...serenely. Because I think
> > they win BIG long term.  You may know how yo play the markets
> > vicissitudes - I don't know when a fund will choose to get out - like
> > Friday - or get in. You may Afavor - you sound smart - and
> > exoerienced.  So, anyway - ther we have the long and the short view -
> > I guess that is what makes a market.

> > On Sep 19, 10:18 am, afavorsky <afavor...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Jackson, you sound sincere. I am sorry, but I disagree strongly with
> > > your sentiment.
> > > Let me make a bear case on fuqi.I am looking forward to a meaningful
> > > discussion.

> > > Now well, OK, let us dig a bit deeper into this.
> > > First off, I was fuqi fan and long since about $15 to $27. Now I am
> > > building a short position, which
> > > is not easy since my broker rarely has any shares availkable to short.
> > > Of course, back at $3, it was
> > > an excellent buy, you'd have to be totally insane to short it there or
> > > even at $15. Too bad I wasn't aware of the stock back then.
> > > Their inventory was worth more than their market cap. Then again,
> > > perhaps people weren't so sure how they valued their inventory?

> > > Now fuqi is clearly overextended. Let me explain why I think it is no
> > > longer a sound long investment.
> > > 1. It is no longer cheap, by any reasonable valuation metrics. PE of
> > > 18 for a Chinese jeweler is right away
> > > expensive. Remember, this is a Chinese company with Chinese
> > > operations, not with US operations. There is a
> > > difference. Chinese accounting standards are quite a bit more lax.
> > > There are definitive signs, if you look at
> > > fuqi reports and listen to their calls (did you listen to them?), that
> > > they book as revenue goods they supply to counterparties that have
> > > not yet been sold or paid for. Stuffing sales channels ahead of the
> > > secondary they ran this year is another distinct
> > > possibility. I am not saying all this is necessarily true, or that
> > > fuqi is a worthless bunch of cheaters. But there
> > > are definitve risks that warrant much more modest valuation. The
> > > potential for their explosive growth is very
> > > questionable too. Go to their web site and check out recruitment.
> > > There is none. Does it ring true for a company
> > > that is supposed to grow so fast? Basically, fuqi is running on pure
> > > momentum right now - and momentum is a fickle thing
> > > that can turn easily. In my view, the latest fuqi can sell off is mid-
> > > next year. What I heard is that it is
> > > this year that is regarded as a particularly good year to marry in
> > > China. So next year, there will likely be a drop. By mid-year,
> > > it will be obvious, and stock will sell off hard then - at latest. But
> > > there are lots of reasons it
> > > can sell off earlier, of course.
> > > 2. I do not know how you regard the current world markets rally. May
> > > be you are a convinced bull. I am not. I think
> > > that as soon as clunkers and new home buyer credit run out, it will be
> > > clear that the US economy is not rebounding
> > > as well as hoped. We are talking before New Year, likely. Other
> > > countries have their own serious problems, inluding China.
> > > I do not think fuqi with its high valuation will survive the downdraft
> > > - it will likely crash.
> > > 3. Fuqi is #1 on IBD100. I do not know if you at all follow this list
> > > and how long. I do for a while. All stocks
> > > that get to be IBD #1 share the same curious pattern: they run up,
> > > sometimes a lot. And then one day they crash,
> > > and when they crash, they usually go down roughly to the level when
> > > they got on the list in the first place.
> > > The reason, in my view, is simple. The list attracts a certain kind of
> > > investors, impatient momentum players.
> > > While they can keep the ball rolling, squeezing the shorts and
> > > attracting greater

> Precisely ZachZaw. AND...I would emphasize that FUQI is a consistent
> positive earnings surprise machine.The growth in their market, their
> growing share of it, the high gold valuations, and the Chinsese
> currency float all add to the brilliant future. I love a Chinese tech
> company - VIT - VanceInfoTechnology.  It was at $15 weds when
> Susquehanna UPGRADED it to POSITIVE from Neutral.  Noe, the P/E is
> 39.46.  The company projects yr - yr growth of 36% - VIT is a great
> company - but that is what i feel is the upper limit. FUQI's consensus
> earnings expectation for Q3 is ,43 - up form .31 Q3 2008 - the same
> rate of growth as VIT.  Why is the P/E half of VIT's?

> Plus I believe ZachZaw is right - .53-.57 is a better estimate. Just
> 48 cents a share in q3 is a 50% qtr over qtr growth rate.  $.52 is up
> 66%. The consensus forward: EPS of $1.93 in 2009 - and $2.17 in 2010.
> uhhh.hello?  Hey the consensus Q3 ESTIMATE is 'up' from .41 to .43 -
> still less than the Q2 actual of .45!  Everyone who thinks FUQI will
> earn less July-Sept than it did April-June 2009 raise your hand.
> Right...

> So, ZachZaw shows FUQI is very inexpensive right now at the projected
> growth rates.  I believe trends show those growth rates are super-
> conservative - illogically so. That is why it can go up rapidly for
> years without for years without ever approaching the P/E ratio of
> stocks that grow at its' rate.

> So, it might be down more between now and November's Q3 earnings - or
> it might start heading to where it should be.  BUT - after the Q3 is
> known - well, sergio's $40 a share looks right to me...and on it
> goes.  I am putting my share of this great company in the vault.

> May I add the emotional control piece: it sucked when I rode it from
> $19 down to $14 in early June...but I held.  It sucked when it went
> from $21 to $15 in July.  $27.43 to $24.02 in august didn't bother - I
> was gettinmg the hang of it.  $32 to a moment at $27.50 was great...I
> was happy to sell my solar gains and buy more.  You get the pattern.
> This is just a 4 month story...  I figure it won't bother me when it
> drops from $40 to $37 in december and bounces back to $42.  Or from
> $53 to $50 after the Q1 run up...  Just one individual investor's
> [amateur's - pld read in all appropriate disclaimers!] opinion...but
> hey, that is my story and I am sticking to it!!

> On Sep 19, 12:22 pm, ZachZaw <zzawar...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > afavorsky, your reliance on FUQI's PE at 18 is faulty.  First, we all
> > know that the PE ratio is a BACKWARD looking indicator.  This company
> > actually has a FORWARD PE ratio of approximately 14.  Considering
> > they've had EPS of $0.45 the last two quarters and I'm assuming the
> > next two quarters come in at $0.47 and $0.53, and that's a
> > conservative estimate -- they could very well do $0.53 and $0.57, at a
> > stock price of $28.35, this company has a PE ratio of 14.17-14.92.
> > Tiffany's (TIF) has a PE of 30!

> > Additionally, shareholders are willing to pay a premium in terms of PE
> > for companies with GROWING revenue, such as FUQI.  Look at Apple,
> > Google, Starent.  Granted, those are all tech stocks, but they have
> > PE's of 32, 34, and 29, respectively.  I don't think you'll find
> > anyone who will argue that those are bad stocks to be in because the
> > PE ratio is too high.  In fact, 9/10 people will say that these are
> > still good stocks to buy, even at their current prices because they
> > continue to grow their earnings and revenue.

> > After taking those factors into consideration, FUQI at $28.35 is
> > looking pretty cheep.  Don't you agree?

> >http://www.ShootTheBears.com

> > On Sep 19, 11:09 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > High integrity FUQI has better Audit Integrity scores than many
> > > American blue chip companies: "Fuqi International, Inc. is currently
> > > rated as having Aggressive Accounting & Governance Risk (AGR®),
> > > receiving an AGR score that places them in the 17th percentile among
> > > the approximately 8,000 companies in North America rated by Audit
> > > Integrity, indicating higher accounting and governance risk than 83%
> > > of the other companies."  That is a North American standard. Apple the
> > > 10th. Alcoa is in the 9th percentile. Ford the 8th. P&G the 2nd!  IBM
> > > in the 6th.  FUQI has bent over backwards to offer accounting that we
> > > can trust here...wisely. You sound sincere too, but your questioning
> > > of FUQI integrity was reckless and unfounded.

> > > So, yes, I have been on the calls.  I was quite impressed.  I think
> > > the Chinese jewelry industry will consolidate and the luxury market
> > > will grow. This management team will be one of the big winners in my
> > > view,  Simultanepously, the emerging middle class in China will be a
> > > rolling phenomenon for a long time.  The Chinese saved - we spent.
> > > They are capital rich - we are debtors.  I love my country as much as
> > > any American - but I see us as so divisive politically right now we
> > > can't act intelligently to address our economic problems.  We can't
> > > even get the stimulus spent and working - 2010 and 2011?!  Just in
> > > time to be inflationary. The growth leader will be China for quite a
> > > while - then we will comeback - as so will my money...that is my
> > > view,

> > > A P/E on a company that is growing rapidly of under 20 is inexpensive
> > > in my veiw. People chase momentum stocks and get burned because they
> > > buy them when the P/Es are already in the 30s and even a great company
> > > can't meet the expectations that implies.  FUQI's P/E is half that.
> > > FUQI in the $30s makes some people nervous and want to play a rollback
> > > because it is up tenfold - and it reminds people of that trend - but
> > > it was just that absurdly cheap in March - as you well describe.  I
> > > get that...and there will be volitility - maybe big swings - as people
> > > take profits. I will sail through them...serenely. Because I think
> > > they win BIG long term.  You may know how yo play the markets
> > > vicissitudes - I don't know when a fund will choose to get out - like
> > > Friday - or get in. You may Afavor - you sound smart - and
> > > exoerienced.  So, anyway - ther we have the long and the short view -
> > > I guess that is what makes a market.

> > > On Sep 19, 10:18 am, afavorsky <afavor...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > Jackson, you sound sincere. I am sorry, but I disagree strongly with
> > > > your sentiment.
> > > > Let me make a bear case on fuqi.I am looking forward to a meaningful
> > > > discussion.

> > > > Now well, OK, let us dig a bit deeper into this.
> > > > First off, I was fuqi fan and long since about $15 to $27. Now I am
> > > > building a short position, which
> > > > is not easy since my broker rarely has any shares availkable to short.
> > > > Of course, back at $3, it was
> > > > an excellent buy, you'd have to be totally insane to short it there or
> > > > even at $15. Too bad I wasn't aware of the stock back then.
> > > > Their inventory was worth more than their market cap. Then again,
> > > > perhaps people weren't so sure how they valued their inventory?

> > > > Now fuqi is clearly overextended. Let me explain why I think it is no
> > > > longer a sound long investment.
> > > > 1. It is no longer cheap, by any reasonable valuation metrics. PE of
> > > > 18 for a Chinese jeweler is right away
> > > > expensive. Remember, this is a Chinese company with Chinese
> > > > operations, not with US operations. There is a
> > > > difference. Chinese accounting standards are quite a bit

> Jackson, I'd be grateful for a link on Audit integrity scores. And
> then I'd like to ask you:
> can you trust this service? What was their rating on Enron before it
> blew up? What was
> their take on banks last summer? What did tehy think about Flotek two
> years ago? In other words,
> how long have you followed this service and what sort of record do
> they have? Because let us be real and ask a practical question.
> How do they check fuqi numbers? Do they travel to China and go through
> their shops?
> Talk to their counterparties? They'd need to know Chinese dialects to
> do that carefully.
> I am pretty sure this is not the case. If you listened to the Q1 call,
> you may remember the
> epizode where they openly admitted that they have not yet been paid
> for the jewelry they shipped
> to their distributors (and booked as revenue). This is NOT
> international accounting standard.
> Chinese IT companies are a lot safer in this regard - most of them
> started up working with the
> US and their counterparties and accounting are much more solid.
>    My impression is that you have become emotional about fuqi. You
> love it as though it were a
> family member and choose to ignore red flags. This is understandable
> if your gain in fuqi is high, but
> this is also very dangerous. I am wondering what do you think about
> lack of fuqi recruitment. Or about
> very likely pull back in revenue once this year's marriage run is
> over. What also worries me is Zach's
> comparing fuqi and tiffany. One is a classic company with strong
> reputation, tremendous brand name
> and first class management. The other is a tiny shop really in a huge
> market that it cannot possibly come
> close to dominate in the next century. You should travel to China and
> visit one of fuqi's shops, and then
> visit Tiffany. You'd realize the ridiculousness of your comparison. A
> have a friend who did just that - not on purpose,
> he is Chinese. Your comparison reminds me of a time when Cutera was
> IBD #1 and one poster argued this is the next google.
> Well, check out the price chart three years later.

> On Sep 20, 7:30 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Precisely ZachZaw. AND...I would emphasize that FUQI is a consistent
> > positive earnings surprise machine.The growth in their market, their
> > growing share of it, the high gold valuations, and the Chinsese
> > currency float all add to the brilliant future. I love a Chinese tech
> > company - VIT - VanceInfoTechnology.  It was at $15 weds when
> > Susquehanna UPGRADED it to POSITIVE from Neutral.  Noe, the P/E is
> > 39.46.  The company projects yr - yr growth of 36% - VIT is a great
> > company - but that is what i feel is the upper limit. FUQI's consensus
> > earnings expectation for Q3 is ,43 - up form .31 Q3 2008 - the same
> > rate of growth as VIT.  Why is the P/E half of VIT's?

> > Plus I believe ZachZaw is right - .53-.57 is a better estimate. Just
> > 48 cents a share in q3 is a 50% qtr over qtr growth rate.  $.52 is up
> > 66%. The consensus forward: EPS of $1.93 in 2009 - and $2.17 in 2010.
> > uhhh.hello?  Hey the consensus Q3 ESTIMATE is 'up' from .41 to .43 -
> > still less than the Q2 actual of .45!  Everyone who thinks FUQI will
> > earn less July-Sept than it did April-June 2009 raise your hand.
> > Right...

> > So, ZachZaw shows FUQI is very inexpensive right now at the projected
> > growth rates.  I believe trends show those growth rates are super-
> > conservative - illogically so. That is why it can go up rapidly for
> > years without for years without ever approaching the P/E ratio of
> > stocks that grow at its' rate.

> > So, it might be down more between now and November's Q3 earnings - or
> > it might start heading to where it should be.  BUT - after the Q3 is
> > known - well, sergio's $40 a share looks right to me...and on it
> > goes.  I am putting my share of this great company in the vault.

> > May I add the emotional control piece: it sucked when I rode it from
> > $19 down to $14 in early June...but I held.  It sucked when it went
> > from $21 to $15 in July.  $27.43 to $24.02 in august didn't bother - I
> > was gettinmg the hang of it.  $32 to a moment at $27.50 was great...I
> > was happy to sell my solar gains and buy more.  You get the pattern.
> > This is just a 4 month story...  I figure it won't bother me when it
> > drops from $40 to $37 in december and bounces back to $42.  Or from
> > $53 to $50 after the Q1 run up...  Just one individual investor's
> > [amateur's - pld read in all appropriate disclaimers!] opinion...but
> > hey, that is my story and I am sticking to it!!

> > On Sep 19, 12:22 pm, ZachZaw <zzawar...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > afavorsky, your reliance on FUQI's PE at 18 is faulty.  First, we all
> > > know that the PE ratio is a BACKWARD looking indicator.  This company
> > > actually has a FORWARD PE ratio of approximately 14.  Considering
> > > they've had EPS of $0.45 the last two quarters and I'm assuming the
> > > next two quarters come in at $0.47 and $0.53, and that's a
> > > conservative estimate -- they could very well do $0.53 and $0.57, at a
> > > stock price of $28.35, this company has a PE ratio of 14.17-14.92.
> > > Tiffany's (TIF) has a PE of 30!

> > > Additionally, shareholders are willing to pay a premium in terms of PE
> > > for companies with GROWING revenue, such as FUQI.  Look at Apple,
> > > Google, Starent.  Granted, those are all tech stocks, but they have
> > > PE's of 32, 34, and 29, respectively.  I don't think you'll find
> > > anyone who will argue that those are bad stocks to be in because the
> > > PE ratio is too high.  In fact, 9/10 people will say that these are
> > > still good stocks to buy, even at their current prices because they
> > > continue to grow their earnings and revenue.

> My read on your posts is that your goal is to make your short
> positions work for you Afavorsky.  Even Rodman & Renshaw simply said -
> paraphrasing: "At $32 it is fully valued...we need to see them execute
> the growth they project before we recommend buying more and driving it
> higher."  So, fine - wait until the earnings.

> But don't waste my time with Enron bs. You are the only writer i have
> seen question this companies integrity.  Fidelity is my platform and
> they provide my access to the Audit Integrity information. I think you
> can go to AuditIntegrity.com directly for AGR scores.  I will post the
> BIO of Eileen Brody - one of the Fuqi Directors below. I will choose
> her because she has American credentials and you questioned Chinese
> accounting earlier.  She got her 2nd MBA from Harvard Business School
> - won awards there - is a CPA KPMG Peat Marwick Senior manager as a
> Fortune 500 auditor - read, 'verifies financial accuracy'.  You can
> find that right here on google/finance fuqi page.  [Next you will say:
> "WorldCom was audited...and Enron's Skillings won accounting awards at
> HBS...that means nothing!" ]

> Bridal jewelry sales are soaring in part because 2009, the "Year of
> the Ox," is said to be an auspicious year to wed...I agree...all the
> more reason to look for great Q3 and Q4 2009 results.  But giving
> jewelry is a cultural expression around births, promotions, birthdays,
> etc. and that China's jewelry market is projected to grow rapidly next
> year and forward. The middle class is 300 million 30 years after it
> was virtually crushed - and will soon exceed the American total
> population.  And then there is protectionism - which sucks, frankly,
> but is great for Fuqi:

> "China slaps a duty tax of up to 34%, a 17% value-added tax and a
> consumption tax of 5% on imported jewelry, for a total of 54%. It's
> part of a government policy of shielding local industries. Only the
> biggest and best-known foreign brands can compete against local firms
> due to such taxes. [yes, IBD sourced]

> Second, I love my family not stocks.  My effort here is to keep people
> from being sucked out of the stock because of the downgrade and drop.
> I am in - my point of view is clear - and I am confident the results
> will serve me either now or soon enough.   I get that you are short
> FUQI - you may or not find an opening to make that work before it goes
> up further. A lot of people have been seriously squeezed shorting FUQI
> and a lot more will be.  It will go up and down - you might hit it -
> you might eat it.  I remain confident of the long term trend.

> PS  "All IBD #1 rated stocks will suffer an ugly fall" is no smarter
> than "All IBD #1 stocks should be purchased."  PSS The fact that FUQI
> is still small underscores the long run and huge opportunity before it
> to me.  [see below]

> Ms. Eileen B. Brody is Director of Fuqi International, Inc., since
> June 2007. Ms. Brody has been President of Dawson-Forte Cashmere, an
> apparel trading company that sources the majority of their cashmere
> products from China. From 1997 to 2004, she was the Vice President of
> Merchandising and Planning for Carter's Retail division of The William
> Carter Company. From 1992 to 1997, she held various management
> positions for Melville Corporation, a multi-billion dollar retailer.
> From 1983 to 1990, Ms. Brody worked for KPMG Peat Marwick in various
> positions including as a Senior Manager. While at KPMG, she was
> responsible for audit services for a diverse clientele of large
> Fortune 500 companies as well as small publicly traded companies and
> provided due diligence services on a wide variety of acquisitions. Ms.
> Brody is a Certified Public Accountant. She is the recipient of the
> Fitzie Foundation-Harvard Business School award and the 2006 NCCE CO-
> OP Hall of Fame Award. She received her Undergraduate and MBA degrees
> from Pace University and a second MBA from the Harvard Graduate School
> of Business in 1992.

> On Sep 20, 9:28 am, afavorsky <afavor...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Jackson, I'd be grateful for a link on Audit integrity scores. And
> > then I'd like to ask you:
> > can you trust this service? What was their rating on Enron before it
> > blew up? What was
> > their take on banks last summer? What did tehy think about Flotek two
> > years ago? In other words,
> > how long have you followed this service and what sort of record do
> > they have? Because let us be real and ask a practical question.
> > How do they check fuqi numbers? Do they travel to China and go through
> > their shops?
> > Talk to their counterparties? They'd need to know Chinese dialects to
> > do that carefully.
> > I am pretty sure this is not the case. If you listened to the Q1 call,
> > you may remember the
> > epizode where they openly admitted that they have not yet been paid
> > for the jewelry they shipped
> > to their distributors (and booked as revenue). This is NOT
> > international accounting standard.
> > Chinese IT companies are a lot safer in this regard - most of them
> > started up working with the
> > US and their counterparties and accounting are much more solid.
> >    My impression is that you have become emotional about fuqi. You
> > love it as though it were a
> > family member and choose to ignore red flags. This is understandable
> > if your gain in fuqi is high, but
> > this is also very dangerous. I am wondering what do you think about
> > lack of fuqi recruitment. Or about
> > very likely pull back in revenue once this year's marriage run is
> > over. What also worries me is Zach's
> > comparing fuqi and tiffany. One is a classic company with strong
> > reputation, tremendous brand name
> > and first class management. The other is a tiny shop really in a huge
> > market that it cannot possibly come
> > close to dominate in the next century. You should travel to China and
> > visit one of fuqi's shops, and then
> > visit Tiffany. You'd realize the ridiculousness of your comparison. A
> > have a friend who did just that - not on purpose,
> > he is Chinese. Your comparison reminds me of a time when Cutera was
> > IBD #1 and one poster argued this is the next google.
> > Well, check out the price chart three years later.

> > On Sep 20, 7:30 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Precisely ZachZaw. AND...I would emphasize that FUQI is a consistent
> > > positive earnings surprise machine.The growth in their market, their
> > > growing share of it, the high gold valuations, and the Chinsese
> > > currency float all add to the brilliant future. I love a Chinese tech
> > > company - VIT - VanceInfoTechnology.  It was at $15 weds when
> > > Susquehanna UPGRADED it to POSITIVE from Neutral.  Noe, the P/E is
> > > 39.46.  The company projects yr - yr growth of 36% - VIT is a great
> > > company - but that is what i feel is the upper limit. FUQI's consensus
> > > earnings expectation for Q3 is ,43 - up form .31 Q3 2008 - the same
> > > rate of growth as VIT.  Why is the P/E half of VIT's?

> > > Plus I believe ZachZaw is right - .53-.57 is a better estimate. Just
> > > 48 cents a share in q3 is a 50% qtr over qtr growth rate.  $.52 is up
> > > 66%. The consensus forward: EPS of $1.93 in 2009 - and $2.17 in 2010.
> > > uhhh.hello?  Hey the consensus Q3 ESTIMATE is 'up' from .41 to .43 -
> > > still less than the Q2 actual of .45!  Everyone who thinks FUQI will
> > > earn less July-Sept than it did April-June 2009 raise your hand.
> > > Right...

> > > So, ZachZaw shows FUQI is very inexpensive right now at the projected
> > > growth rates.  I believe trends show those growth rates are super-
> > > conservative - illogically so. That is why it can go up rapidly for
> > > years without for years without ever approaching the P/E ratio of
> > > stocks that grow at its' rate.

> > > So, it might be down more between now and November's Q3 earnings - or
> > > it might start heading to where it should be.  BUT - after the Q3 is
> > > known - well, sergio's $40 a share looks right to me...and on it
> > > goes.  I am putting my share of this great company in the vault.

> > > May I add the emotional control piece: it sucked when I rode it from
> > > $19 down to $14 in early June...but I held.  It sucked when it went
> > > from $21 to $15 in July.  $27.43 to $24.02 in august didn't bother - I
> > > was gettinmg the hang of it.  $32 to a moment at $27.50 was great...I
> > > was happy to sell my solar gains and buy more.  You get the pattern.
> > > This is just a 4 month story...  I figure it won't bother me when it
> > > drops from $40 to $37 in december and bounces back to $42.  Or from
> > > $53 to $50 after the Q1 run up...  Just one individual investor's
> > > [amateur's - pld read in all appropriate disclaimers!] opinion...but
> > > hey, that is my story and I am sticking to it!!

> > > On Sep 19, 12:22 pm, ZachZaw <zzawar...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > afavorsky, your reliance on FUQI's PE at 18 is faulty.  First, we all
> > > > know that the PE

> My read on your posts is that your goal is to make your short
> positions work for you Afavorsky.  Even Rodman & Renshaw simply said -
> paraphrasing: "At $32 it is fully valued...we need to see them execute
> the growth they project before we recommend buying more and driving it
> higher."  So, fine - wait until the earnings.

> But don't waste my time with Enron bs. You are the only writer i have
> seen question this companies integrity.  Fidelity is my platform and
> they provide my access to the Audit Integrity information. I think you
> can go to AuditIntegrity.com directly for AGR scores.  I will post the
> BIO of Eileen Brody - one of the Fuqi Directors below. I will choose
> her because she has American credentials and you questioned Chinese
> accounting earlier.  She got her 2nd MBA from Harvard Business School
> - won awards there - is a CPA KPMG Peat Marwick Senior manager as a
> Fortune 500 auditor - read, 'verifies financial accuracy'.  You can
> find that right here on google/finance fuqi page.  [Next you will say:
> "WorldCom was audited...and Enron's Skillings won accounting awards at
> HBS...that means nothing!" ]

> Bridal jewelry sales are soaring in part because 2009, the "Year of
> the Ox," is said to be an auspicious year to wed...I agree...all the
> more reason to look for great Q3 and Q4 2009 results.  But giving
> jewelry is a cultural expression around births, promotions, birthdays,
> etc. and that China's jewelry market is projected to grow rapidly next
> year and forward. The middle class is 300 million 30 years after it
> was virtually crushed - and will soon exceed the American total
> population.  And then there is protectionism - which sucks, frankly,
> but is great for Fuqi:

> "China slaps a duty tax of up to 34%, a 17% value-added tax and a
> consumption tax of 5% on imported jewelry, for a total of 54%. It's
> part of a government policy of shielding local industries. Only the
> biggest and best-known foreign brands can compete against local firms
> due to such taxes. [yes, IBD sourced]

> Second, I love my family not stocks.  My effort here is to keep people
> from being sucked out of the stock because of the downgrade and drop.
> I am in - my point of view is clear - and I am confident the results
> will serve me either now or soon enough.   I get that you are short
> FUQI - you may or not find an opening to make that work before it goes
> up further. A lot of people have been seriously squeezed shorting FUQI
> and a lot more will be.  It will go up and down - you might hit it -
> you might eat it.  I remain confident of the long term trend.

> PS  "All IBD #1 rated stocks will suffer an ugly fall" is no smarter
> than "All IBD #1 stocks should be purchased."  PSS The fact that FUQI
> is still small underscores the long run and huge opportunity before it
> to me.  [see below]

> Ms. Eileen B. Brody is Director of Fuqi International, Inc., since
> June 2007. Ms. Brody has been President of Dawson-Forte Cashmere, an
> apparel trading company that sources the majority of their cashmere
> products from China. From 1997 to 2004, she was the Vice President of
> Merchandising and Planning for Carter's Retail division of The William
> Carter Company. From 1992 to 1997, she held various management
> positions for Melville Corporation, a multi-billion dollar retailer.
> From 1983 to 1990, Ms. Brody worked for KPMG Peat Marwick in various
> positions including as a Senior Manager. While at KPMG, she was
> responsible for audit services for a diverse clientele of large
> Fortune 500 companies as well as small publicly traded companies and
> provided due diligence services on a wide variety of acquisitions. Ms.
> Brody is a Certified Public Accountant. She is the recipient of the
> Fitzie Foundation-Harvard Business School award and the 2006 NCCE CO-
> OP Hall of Fame Award. She received her Undergraduate and MBA degrees
> from Pace University and a second MBA from the Harvard Graduate School
> of Business in 1992.

> On Sep 20, 9:28 am, afavorsky <afavor...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Jackson, I'd be grateful for a link on Audit integrity scores. And
> > then I'd like to ask you:
> > can you trust this service? What was their rating on Enron before it
> > blew up? What was
> > their take on banks last summer? What did tehy think about Flotek two
> > years ago? In other words,
> > how long have you followed this service and what sort of record do
> > they have? Because let us be real and ask a practical question.
> > How do they check fuqi numbers? Do they travel to China and go through
> > their shops?
> > Talk to their counterparties? They'd need to know Chinese dialects to
> > do that carefully.
> > I am pretty sure this is not the case. If you listened to the Q1 call,
> > you may remember the
> > epizode where they openly admitted that they have not yet been paid
> > for the jewelry they shipped
> > to their distributors (and booked as revenue). This is NOT
> > international accounting standard.
> > Chinese IT companies are a lot safer in this regard - most of them
> > started up working with the
> > US and their counterparties and accounting are much more solid.
> >    My impression is that you have become emotional about fuqi. You
> > love it as though it were a
> > family member and choose to ignore red flags. This is understandable
> > if your gain in fuqi is high, but
> > this is also very dangerous. I am wondering what do you think about
> > lack of fuqi recruitment. Or about
> > very likely pull back in revenue once this year's marriage run is
> > over. What also worries me is Zach's
> > comparing fuqi and tiffany. One is a classic company with strong
> > reputation, tremendous brand name
> > and first class management. The other is a tiny shop really in a huge
> > market that it cannot possibly come
> > close to dominate in the next century. You should travel to China and
> > visit one of fuqi's shops, and then
> > visit Tiffany. You'd realize the ridiculousness of your comparison. A
> > have a friend who did just that - not on purpose,
> > he is Chinese. Your comparison reminds me of a time when Cutera was
> > IBD #1 and one poster argued this is the next google.
> > Well, check out the price chart three years later.

> > On Sep 20, 7:30 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Precisely ZachZaw. AND...I would emphasize that FUQI is a consistent
> > > positive earnings surprise machine.The growth in their market, their
> > > growing share of it, the high gold valuations, and the Chinsese
> > > currency float all add to the brilliant future. I love a Chinese tech
> > > company - VIT - VanceInfoTechnology.  It was at $15 weds when
> > > Susquehanna UPGRADED it to POSITIVE from Neutral.  Noe, the P/E is
> > > 39.46.  The company projects yr - yr growth of 36% - VIT is a great
> > > company - but that is what i feel is the upper limit. FUQI's consensus
> > > earnings expectation for Q3 is ,43 - up form .31 Q3 2008 - the same
> > > rate of growth as VIT.  Why is the P/E half of VIT's?

> > > Plus I believe ZachZaw is right - .53-.57 is a better estimate. Just
> > > 48 cents a share in q3 is a 50% qtr over qtr growth rate.  $.52 is up
> > > 66%. The consensus forward: EPS of $1.93 in 2009 - and $2.17 in 2010.
> > > uhhh.hello?  Hey the consensus Q3 ESTIMATE is 'up' from .41 to .43 -
> > > still less than the Q2 actual of .45!  Everyone who thinks FUQI will
> > > earn less July-Sept than it did April-June 2009 raise your hand.
> > > Right...

> > > So, ZachZaw shows FUQI is very inexpensive right now at the projected
> > > growth rates.  I believe trends show those growth rates are super-
> > > conservative - illogically so. That is why it can go up rapidly for
> > > years without for years without ever approaching the P/E ratio of

> Sorry, got interrupted. So, can fuqi be a good long term investment,
> say five years
> from now? I have no idea. May be. But you have to realize one thing.
> The world is changing
> significantly before our eyes. China economy was always driven by
> exports, external demand,
> which is now gone and shows no signs of returning. How is this
> adjustment going to go, nobody knows.
> China is throwing lots of money at their economy, trying to stimulate
> domestic demand. But all
> this does not look healthy. Most of this money will be wasted. But the
> scale of intervention shows
> how high the fear of authrities is. That is why you talk about long
> term return, I think you just can't come out
> with platitudes like "Chinese middle class is growing, blah, blah". I
> will ask you back: are you sure China will
> avoid riots next year? Are you sure it will avoid major upheaval? If
> you your answer is yes, you either haven't followed
> or you are not being honest. The market has a tendency to swing
> between the extremes; it now has forgotten the
> fear, but it will find plenty to fear once it swings the other way.

> As far as your Brody passage, you answered it yourself. Nothing in her
> resume shows she can be trusted.
> The names of the companies she worked for are nto enough - you need
> more than that. If she were a CFO of
> succesful company for a few years, and the company did not crash after
> she left - I'd say OK, you have a point.
> But you never even mention what is her role at fuqi. My guess is she
> is probably responsible for the US relations,
> namely financing - which has little to do with actual fuqi business.

> As far as your IBD swing goes: I have watched the list for five years.
> I have seen stocs appointed IBD #1 not go up.
> But I have not seen a singe stock which was #1, ran up, and did not
> crash. Not one. Are you saying this most dangerous
> phrase in the history of investment, "this time it is different"?

> On Sep 20, 9:45 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > My read on your posts is that your goal is to make your short
> > positions work for you Afavorsky.  Even Rodman & Renshaw simply said -
> > paraphrasing: "At $32 it is fully valued...we need to see them execute
> > the growth they project before we recommend buying more and driving it
> > higher."  So, fine - wait until the earnings.

> > But don't waste my time with Enron bs. You are the only writer i have
> > seen question this companies integrity.  Fidelity is my platform and
> > they provide my access to the Audit Integrity information. I think you
> > can go to AuditIntegrity.com directly for AGR scores.  I will post the
> > BIO of Eileen Brody - one of the Fuqi Directors below. I will choose
> > her because she has American credentials and you questioned Chinese
> > accounting earlier.  She got her 2nd MBA from Harvard Business School
> > - won awards there - is a CPA KPMG Peat Marwick Senior manager as a
> > Fortune 500 auditor - read, 'verifies financial accuracy'.  You can
> > find that right here on google/finance fuqi page.  [Next you will say:
> > "WorldCom was audited...and Enron's Skillings won accounting awards at
> > HBS...that means nothing!" ]

> > Bridal jewelry sales are soaring in part because 2009, the "Year of
> > the Ox," is said to be an auspicious year to wed...I agree...all the
> > more reason to look for great Q3 and Q4 2009 results.  But giving
> > jewelry is a cultural expression around births, promotions, birthdays,
> > etc. and that China's jewelry market is projected to grow rapidly next
> > year and forward. The middle class is 300 million 30 years after it
> > was virtually crushed - and will soon exceed the American total
> > population.  And then there is protectionism - which sucks, frankly,
> > but is great for Fuqi:

> > "China slaps a duty tax of up to 34%, a 17% value-added tax and a
> > consumption tax of 5% on imported jewelry, for a total of 54%. It's
> > part of a government policy of shielding local industries. Only the
> > biggest and best-known foreign brands can compete against local firms
> > due to such taxes. [yes, IBD sourced]

> > Second, I love my family not stocks.  My effort here is to keep people
> > from being sucked out of the stock because of the downgrade and drop.
> > I am in - my point of view is clear - and I am confident the results
> > will serve me either now or soon enough.   I get that you are short
> > FUQI - you may or not find an opening to make that work before it goes
> > up further. A lot of people have been seriously squeezed shorting FUQI
> > and a lot more will be.  It will go up and down - you might hit it -
> > you might eat it.  I remain confident of the long term trend.

> > PS  "All IBD #1 rated stocks will suffer an ugly fall" is no smarter
> > than "All IBD #1 stocks should be purchased."  PSS The fact that FUQI
> > is still small underscores the long run and huge opportunity before it
> > to me.  [see below]

> > Ms. Eileen B. Brody is Director of Fuqi International, Inc., since
> > June 2007. Ms. Brody has been President of Dawson-Forte Cashmere, an
> > apparel trading company that sources the majority of their cashmere
> > products from China. From 1997 to 2004, she was the Vice President of
> > Merchandising and Planning for Carter's Retail division of The William
> > Carter Company. From 1992 to 1997, she held various management
> > positions for Melville Corporation, a multi-billion dollar retailer.
> > From 1983 to 1990, Ms. Brody worked for KPMG Peat Marwick in various
> > positions including as a Senior Manager. While at KPMG, she was
> > responsible for audit services for a diverse clientele of large
> > Fortune 500 companies as well as small publicly traded companies and
> > provided due diligence services on a wide variety of acquisitions. Ms.
> > Brody is a Certified Public Accountant. She is the recipient of the
> > Fitzie Foundation-Harvard Business School award and the 2006 NCCE CO-
> > OP Hall of Fame Award. She received her Undergraduate and MBA degrees
> > from Pace University and a second MBA from the Harvard Graduate School
> > of Business in 1992.

> > On Sep 20, 9:28 am, afavorsky <afavor...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Jackson, I'd be grateful for a link on Audit integrity scores. And
> > > then I'd like to ask you:
> > > can you trust this service? What was their rating on Enron before it
> > > blew up? What was
> > > their take on banks last summer? What did tehy think about Flotek two
> > > years ago? In other words,
> > > how long have you followed this service and what sort of record do
> > > they have? Because let us be real and ask a practical question.
> > > How do they check fuqi numbers? Do they travel to China and go through
> > > their shops?
> > > Talk to their counterparties? They'd need to know Chinese dialects to
> > > do that carefully.
> > > I am pretty sure this is not the case. If you listened to the Q1 call,
> > > you may remember the
> > > epizode where they openly admitted that they have not yet been paid
> > > for the jewelry they shipped
> > > to their distributors (and booked as revenue). This is NOT
> > > international accounting standard.
> > > Chinese IT companies are a lot safer in this regard - most of them
> > > started up working with the
> > > US and their counterparties and accounting are much more solid.
> > >    My impression is that you have become emotional about fuqi. You
> > > love it as though it were a
> > > family member and choose to ignore red flags. This is understandable
> > > if your gain in fuqi is high, but
> > > this is also very dangerous. I am wondering what do you think about
> > > lack of fuqi recruitment. Or about
> > > very likely pull back in revenue once this year's marriage run is
> > > over. What also worries me is Zach's
> > > comparing fuqi and tiffany. One is a classic

> Sorry, got interrupted. So, can fuqi be a good long term investment,
> say five years
> from now? I have no idea. May be. But you have to realize one thing.
> The world is changing
> significantly before our eyes. China economy was always driven by
> exports, external demand,
> which is now gone and shows no signs of returning. How is this
> adjustment going to go, nobody knows.
> China is throwing lots of money at their economy, trying to stimulate
> domestic demand. But all
> this does not look healthy. Most of this money will be wasted. But the
> scale of intervention shows
> how high the fear of authrities is. That is why you talk about long
> term return, I think you just can't come out
> with platitudes like "Chinese middle class is growing, blah, blah". I
> will ask you back: are you sure China will
> avoid riots next year? Are you sure it will avoid major upheaval? If
> you your answer is yes, you either haven't followed
> or you are not being honest. The market has a tendency to swing
> between the extremes; it now has forgotten the
> fear, but it will find plenty to fear once it swings the other way.

> As far as your Brody passage, you answered it yourself. Nothing in her
> resume shows she can be trusted.
> The names of the companies she worked for are nto enough - you need
> more than that. If she were a CFO of
> succesful company for a few years, and the company did not crash after
> she left - I'd say OK, you have a point.
> But you never even mention what is her role at fuqi. My guess is she
> is probably responsible for the US relations,
> namely financing - which has little to do with actual fuqi business.

> As far as your IBD swing goes: I have watched the list for five years.
> I have seen stocs appointed IBD #1 not go up.
> But I have not seen a singe stock which was #1, ran up, and did not
> crash. Not one. Are you saying this most dangerous
> phrase in the history of investment, "this time it is different"?

> On Sep 20, 9:45 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > My read on your posts is that your goal is to make your short
> > positions work for you Afavorsky.  Even Rodman & Renshaw simply said -
> > paraphrasing: "At $32 it is fully valued...we need to see them execute
> > the growth they project before we recommend buying more and driving it
> > higher."  So, fine - wait until the earnings.

> > But don't waste my time with Enron bs. You are the only writer i have
> > seen question this companies integrity.  Fidelity is my platform and
> > they provide my access to the Audit Integrity information. I think you
> > can go to AuditIntegrity.com directly for AGR scores.  I will post the
> > BIO of Eileen Brody - one of the Fuqi Directors below. I will choose
> > her because she has American credentials and you questioned Chinese
> > accounting earlier.  She got her 2nd MBA from Harvard Business School
> > - won awards there - is a CPA KPMG Peat Marwick Senior manager as a
> > Fortune 500 auditor - read, 'verifies financial accuracy'.  You can
> > find that right here on google/finance fuqi page.  [Next you will say:
> > "WorldCom was audited...and Enron's Skillings won accounting awards at
> > HBS...that means nothing!" ]

> > Bridal jewelry sales are soaring in part because 2009, the "Year of
> > the Ox," is said to be an auspicious year to wed...I agree...all the
> > more reason to look for great Q3 and Q4 2009 results.  But giving
> > jewelry is a cultural expression around births, promotions, birthdays,
> > etc. and that China's jewelry market is projected to grow rapidly next
> > year and forward. The middle class is 300 million 30 years after it
> > was virtually crushed - and will soon exceed the American total
> > population.  And then there is protectionism - which sucks, frankly,
> > but is great for Fuqi:

> > "China slaps a duty tax of up to 34%, a 17% value-added tax and a
> > consumption tax of 5% on imported jewelry, for a total of 54%. It's
> > part of a government policy of shielding local industries. Only the
> > biggest and best-known foreign brands can compete against local firms
> > due to such taxes. [yes, IBD sourced]

> > Second, I love my family not stocks.  My effort here is to keep people
> > from being sucked out of the stock because of the downgrade and drop.
> > I am in - my point of view is clear - and I am confident the results
> > will serve me either now or soon enough.   I get that you are short
> > FUQI - you may or not find an opening to make that work before it goes
> > up further. A lot of people have been seriously squeezed shorting FUQI
> > and a lot more will be.  It will go up and down - you might hit it -
> > you might eat it.  I remain confident of the long term trend.

> > PS  "All IBD #1 rated stocks will suffer an ugly fall" is no smarter
> > than "All IBD #1 stocks should be purchased."  PSS The fact that FUQI
> > is still small underscores the long run and huge opportunity before it
> > to me.  [see below]

> > Ms. Eileen B. Brody is Director of Fuqi International, Inc., since
> > June 2007. Ms. Brody has been President of Dawson-Forte Cashmere, an
> > apparel trading company that sources the majority of their cashmere
> > products from China. From 1997 to 2004, she was the Vice President of
> > Merchandising and Planning for Carter's Retail division of The William
> > Carter Company. From 1992 to 1997, she held various management
> > positions for Melville Corporation, a multi-billion dollar retailer.
> > From 1983 to 1990, Ms. Brody worked for KPMG Peat Marwick in various
> > positions including as a Senior Manager. While at KPMG, she was
> > responsible for audit services for a diverse clientele of large
> > Fortune 500 companies as well as small publicly traded companies and
> > provided due diligence services on a wide variety of acquisitions. Ms.
> > Brody is a Certified Public Accountant. She is the recipient of the
> > Fitzie Foundation-Harvard Business School award and the 2006 NCCE CO-
> > OP Hall of Fame Award. She received her Undergraduate and MBA degrees
> > from Pace University and a second MBA from the Harvard Graduate School
> > of Business in 1992.

> > On Sep 20, 9:28 am, afavorsky <afavor...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Jackson, I'd be grateful for a link on Audit integrity scores. And
> > > then I'd like to ask you:
> > > can you trust this service? What was their rating on Enron before it
> > > blew up? What was
> > > their take on banks last summer? What did tehy think about Flotek two
> > > years ago? In other words,
> > > how long have you followed this service and what sort of record do
> > > they have? Because let us be real and ask a practical question.
> > > How do they check fuqi numbers? Do they travel to China and go through
> > > their shops?
> > > Talk to their counterparties? They'd need to know Chinese dialects to
> > > do that carefully.
> > > I am pretty sure this is not the case. If you listened to the Q1 call,
> > > you may remember the
> > > epizode where they openly admitted that they have not yet been paid
> > > for the jewelry they shipped
> > > to their distributors (and booked as revenue). This is NOT
> > > international accounting standard.
> > > Chinese IT companies are a lot safer in this regard - most of them
> > > started up working with the
> > > US and their counterparties and accounting are much more solid.
> > >    My impression is that you have become emotional about fuqi. You
> > > love it as though it were a
> > > family member and choose to ignore red flags. This is understandable
> > > if your gain in fuqi is high, but
> > > this is also very dangerous. I am wondering what do you think about
> > > lack of fuqi recruitment. Or about
> > > very likely pull back in revenue once this year's marriage run is
> > > over. What also worries me is Zach's
> > > comparing fuqi and tiffany. One is a classic company with strong
> > > reputation, tremendous brand name
> > > and first class management. The other is a tiny shop really in a huge
> > > market that it cannot possibly come
> > > close to dominate in the next century. You should travel to China and
> > > visit one of fuqi's shops, and then
> > > visit Tiffany. You'd realize the ridiculousness of your comparison. A
> > > have a friend who did just that - not on purpose,
> > > he is Chinese. Your comparison reminds me of a time when Cutera was
> > > IBD #1 and one poster argued this is the next google.
> > > Well, check out the price chart three years later.

> > > On Sep 20, 7:30 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > Precisely ZachZaw. AND...I would emphasize that FUQI is a consistent
> > > > positive earnings surprise machine.The growth in their market, their
> > > > growing share of it, the high gold valuations, and the Chinsese
> > > > currency float all add to the brilliant future. I love a Chinese tech
> > > > company - VIT - VanceInfoTechnology.  It was at $15 weds when
> > > > Susquehanna UPGRADED it to POSITIVE from Neutral.  Noe, the P/E is
> > > > 39.46.  The company projects yr - yr growth of 36% - VIT is a great
> > > > company - but that is what i feel is the upper limit. FUQI's consensus
> > > > earnings expectation for Q3 is ,43 - up form .31 Q3 2008 - the same
> > > > rate of growth as VIT.  Why is the P/E half of VIT's?

> > > > Plus I believe ZachZaw is right - .53-.57 is a better estimate. Just
> > > > 48 cents a share in q3 is a 50% qtr over qtr growth rate.  $.52 is up
> > > > 66%. The consensus forward: EPS of $1.93 in 2009 - and $2.17 in 2010.
> > > > uhhh.hello?  Hey

> afavorsky, hate to say it, but I (excuse me, WE) told ya so.

> Sooooo, think it's a good time to cover to stop the bleeding?

> http://www.ShootTheBears.com

> On Sep 21, 12:03 am, afavorsky <afavor...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > Sorry, got interrupted. So, can fuqi be a good long term investment,
> > say five years
> > from now? I have no idea. May be. But you have to realize one thing.
> > The world is changing
> > significantly before our eyes. China economy was always driven by
> > exports, external demand,
> > which is now gone and shows no signs of returning. How is this
> > adjustment going to go, nobody knows.
> > China is throwing lots of money at their economy, trying to stimulate
> > domestic demand. But all
> > this does not look healthy. Most of this money will be wasted. But the
> > scale of intervention shows
> > how high the fear of authrities is. That is why you talk about long
> > term return, I think you just can't come out
> > with platitudes like "Chinese middle class is growing, blah, blah". I
> > will ask you back: are you sure China will
> > avoid riots next year? Are you sure it will avoid major upheaval? If
> > you your answer is yes, you either haven't followed
> > or you are not being honest. The market has a tendency to swing
> > between the extremes; it now has forgotten the
> > fear, but it will find plenty to fear once it swings the other way.

> > As far as your Brody passage, you answered it yourself. Nothing in her
> > resume shows she can be trusted.
> > The names of the companies she worked for are nto enough - you need
> > more than that. If she were a CFO of
> > succesful company for a few years, and the company did not crash after
> > she left - I'd say OK, you have a point.
> > But you never even mention what is her role at fuqi. My guess is she
> > is probably responsible for the US relations,
> > namely financing - which has little to do with actual fuqi business.

> > As far as your IBD swing goes: I have watched the list for five years.
> > I have seen stocs appointed IBD #1 not go up.
> > But I have not seen a singe stock which was #1, ran up, and did not
> > crash. Not one. Are you saying this most dangerous
> > phrase in the history of investment, "this time it is different"?

> > On Sep 20, 9:45 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > My read on your posts is that your goal is to make your short
> > > positions work for you Afavorsky.  Even Rodman & Renshaw simply said -
> > > paraphrasing: "At $32 it is fully valued...we need to see them execute
> > > the growth they project before we recommend buying more and driving it
> > > higher."  So, fine - wait until the earnings.

> > > But don't waste my time with Enron bs. You are the only writer i have
> > > seen question this companies integrity.  Fidelity is my platform and
> > > they provide my access to the Audit Integrity information. I think you
> > > can go to AuditIntegrity.com directly for AGR scores.  I will post the
> > > BIO of Eileen Brody - one of the Fuqi Directors below. I will choose
> > > her because she has American credentials and you questioned Chinese
> > > accounting earlier.  She got her 2nd MBA from Harvard Business School
> > > - won awards there - is a CPA KPMG Peat Marwick Senior manager as a
> > > Fortune 500 auditor - read, 'verifies financial accuracy'.  You can
> > > find that right here on google/finance fuqi page.  [Next you will say:
> > > "WorldCom was audited...and Enron's Skillings won accounting awards at
> > > HBS...that means nothing!" ]

> > > Bridal jewelry sales are soaring in part because 2009, the "Year of
> > > the Ox," is said to be an auspicious year to wed...I agree...all the
> > > more reason to look for great Q3 and Q4 2009 results.  But giving
> > > jewelry is a cultural expression around births, promotions, birthdays,
> > > etc. and that China's jewelry market is projected to grow rapidly next
> > > year and forward. The middle class is 300 million 30 years after it
> > > was virtually crushed - and will soon exceed the American total
> > > population.  And then there is protectionism - which sucks, frankly,
> > > but is great for Fuqi:

> > > "China slaps a duty tax of up to 34%, a 17% value-added tax and a
> > > consumption tax of 5% on imported jewelry, for a total of 54%. It's
> > > part of a government policy of shielding local industries. Only the
> > > biggest and best-known foreign brands can compete against local firms
> > > due to such taxes. [yes, IBD sourced]

> > > Second, I love my family not stocks.  My effort here is to keep people
> > > from being sucked out of the stock because of the downgrade and drop.
> > > I am in - my point of view is clear - and I am confident the results
> > > will serve me either now or soon enough.   I get that you are short
> > > FUQI - you may or not find an opening to make that work before it goes
> > > up further. A lot of people have been seriously squeezed shorting FUQI
> > > and a lot more will be.  It will go up and down - you might hit it -
> > > you might eat it.  I remain confident of the long term trend.

> > > PS  "All IBD #1 rated stocks will suffer an ugly fall" is no smarter
> > > than "All IBD #1 stocks should be purchased."  PSS The fact that FUQI
> > > is still small underscores the long run and huge opportunity before it
> > > to me.  [see below]

> > > Ms. Eileen B. Brody is Director of Fuqi International, Inc., since
> > > June 2007. Ms. Brody has been President of Dawson-Forte Cashmere, an
> > > apparel trading company that sources the majority of their cashmere
> > > products from China. From 1997 to 2004, she was the Vice President of
> > > Merchandising and Planning for Carter's Retail division of The William
> > > Carter Company. From 1992 to 1997, she held various management
> > > positions for Melville Corporation, a multi-billion dollar retailer.
> > > From 1983 to 1990, Ms. Brody worked for KPMG Peat Marwick in various
> > > positions including as a Senior Manager. While at KPMG, she was
> > > responsible for audit services for a diverse clientele of large
> > > Fortune 500 companies as well as small publicly traded companies and
> > > provided due diligence services on a wide variety of acquisitions. Ms.
> > > Brody is a Certified Public Accountant. She is the recipient of the
> > > Fitzie Foundation-Harvard Business School award and the 2006 NCCE CO-
> > > OP Hall of Fame Award. She received her Undergraduate and MBA degrees
> > > from Pace University and a second MBA from the Harvard Graduate School
> > > of Business in 1992.

> > > On Sep 20, 9:28 am, afavorsky <afavor...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > Jackson, I'd be grateful for a link on Audit integrity scores. And
> > > > then I'd like to ask you:
> > > > can you trust this service? What was their rating on Enron before it
> > > > blew up? What was
> > > > their take on banks last summer? What did tehy think about Flotek two
> > > > years ago? In other words,
> > > > how long have you followed this service and what sort of record do
> > > > they have? Because let us be real and ask a practical question.
> > > > How do they check fuqi numbers? Do they travel to China and go through
> > > > their shops?
> > > > Talk to their counterparties? They'd need to know Chinese dialects to
> > > > do that carefully.
> > > > I am pretty sure this is not the case. If you listened to the Q1 call,
> > > > you may remember the
> > > > epizode where they openly admitted that they have not yet been paid
> > > > for the jewelry they shipped
> > > > to their distributors (and booked as revenue). This is NOT
> > > > international accounting standard.
> > > > Chinese IT companies are a lot safer in this regard - most of them
> > > > started up working with the
> > > > US and their counterparties and accounting are much more solid.
> > > >    My impression is that you have become emotional about fuqi. You
> > > > love it as though it were a
> > > > family member and choose to ignore red flags. This is understandable
> > > > if your gain in fuqi is high, but
> > > > this is also very dangerous. I am wondering what do you think about
> > > > lack of fuqi recruitment. Or about
> > > > very likely pull back in revenue once this year's marriage run is
> > > > over. What also worries me is Zach's
> > > > comparing fuqi and tiffany. One is a classic company with strong
> > > > reputation, tremendous brand name
> > > > and first class management. The other is a tiny shop really in a huge
> > > > market that it cannot possibly come
> > > > close to dominate in the next century. You should travel to

> Oh Zach, you gotta be kidding me. I am talking about fuqi crash by mid-
> next year, and my
> being prepared to add while it runs to $100 (though unortunately it
> probably won't give me
> that chance) - and you tout a puny 5% advance? I am not even in the
> red yet, and I expect
> to be for a while. I am in for a long haul if necessary, patient,
> careful, not underestimating fuqi
> speculative momentum, prepared to add gradually as it runs towards the
> crash. I am quite confident in my play.
> Do your own DD, don't follow the crowd!

> Jackson, I am also glad we did this exchange. I now understand better
> the mindset that can move even
> reasonable people to join fuqi bubble. I couldn't agree more with you
> on US having serious problems.
> Two things you get wrong - I think - is first how much time China
> needs to substitute lost demand.
> It is very hard to grow it as fast as it needs to avoid unrest.
> Probably impossible.  And second, you seem to lack
> experience or imagination to realize how wide markets swings may be.
> But that is just my humble opinion.
> I may well be wrong, and you right. Good luck, and have fun.

> On Sep 21, 4:36 pm, ZachZaw <zzawar...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > afavorsky, hate to say it, but I (excuse me, WE) told ya so.

> > Sooooo, think it's a good time to cover to stop the bleeding?

> >http://www.ShootTheBears.com

> > On Sep 21, 12:03 am, afavorsky <afavor...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > Sorry, got interrupted. So, can fuqi be a good long term investment,
> > > say five years
> > > from now? I have no idea. May be. But you have to realize one thing.
> > > The world is changing
> > > significantly before our eyes. China economy was always driven by
> > > exports, external demand,
> > > which is now gone and shows no signs of returning. How is this
> > > adjustment going to go, nobody knows.
> > > China is throwing lots of money at their economy, trying to stimulate
> > > domestic demand. But all
> > > this does not look healthy. Most of this money will be wasted. But the
> > > scale of intervention shows
> > > how high the fear of authrities is. That is why you talk about long
> > > term return, I think you just can't come out
> > > with platitudes like "Chinese middle class is growing, blah, blah". I
> > > will ask you back: are you sure China will
> > > avoid riots next year? Are you sure it will avoid major upheaval? If
> > > you your answer is yes, you either haven't followed
> > > or you are not being honest. The market has a tendency to swing
> > > between the extremes; it now has forgotten the
> > > fear, but it will find plenty to fear once it swings the other way.

> > > As far as your Brody passage, you answered it yourself. Nothing in her
> > > resume shows she can be trusted.
> > > The names of the companies she worked for are nto enough - you need
> > > more than that. If she were a CFO of
> > > succesful company for a few years, and the company did not crash after
> > > she left - I'd say OK, you have a point.
> > > But you never even mention what is her role at fuqi. My guess is she
> > > is probably responsible for the US relations,
> > > namely financing - which has little to do with actual fuqi business.

> > > As far as your IBD swing goes: I have watched the list for five years.
> > > I have seen stocs appointed IBD #1 not go up.
> > > But I have not seen a singe stock which was #1, ran up, and did not
> > > crash. Not one. Are you saying this most dangerous
> > > phrase in the history of investment, "this time it is different"?

> > > On Sep 20, 9:45 am, jackson <j.foley...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > My read on your posts is that your goal is to make your short
> > > > positions work for you Afavorsky.  Even Rodman & Renshaw simply said -
> > > > paraphrasing: "At $32 it is fully valued...we need to see them execute
> > > > the growth they project before we recommend buying more and driving it
> > > > higher."  So, fine - wait until the earnings.

> > > > But don't waste my time with Enron bs. You are the only writer i have
> > > > seen question this companies integrity.  Fidelity is my platform and
> > > > they provide my access to the Audit Integrity information. I think you
> > > > can go to AuditIntegrity.com directly for AGR scores.  I will post the
> > > > BIO of Eileen Brody - one of the Fuqi Directors below. I will choose
> > > > her because she has American credentials and you questioned Chinese
> > > > accounting earlier.  She got her 2nd MBA from Harvard Business School
> > > > - won awards there - is a CPA KPMG Peat Marwick Senior manager as a
> > > > Fortune 500 auditor - read, 'verifies financial accuracy'.  You can
> > > > find that right here on google/finance fuqi page.  [Next you will say:
> > > > "WorldCom was audited...and Enron's Skillings won accounting awards at
> > > > HBS...that means nothing!" ]

> > > > Bridal jewelry sales are soaring in part because 2009, the "Year of
> > > > the Ox," is said to be an auspicious year to wed...I agree...all the
> > > > more reason to look for great Q3 and Q4 2009 results.  But giving
> > > > jewelry is a cultural expression around births, promotions, birthdays,
> > > > etc. and that China's jewelry market is projected to grow rapidly next
> > > > year and forward. The middle class is 300 million 30 years after it
> > > > was virtually crushed - and will soon exceed the American total
> > > > population.  And then there is protectionism - which sucks, frankly,
> > > > but is great for Fuqi:

> > > > "China slaps a duty tax of up to 34%, a 17% value-added tax and a
> > > > consumption tax of 5% on imported jewelry, for a total of 54%. It's
> > > > part of a government policy of shielding local industries. Only the
> > > > biggest and best-known foreign brands can compete against local firms
> > > > due to such taxes. [yes, IBD sourced]

> > > > Second, I love my family not stocks.  My effort here is to keep people
> > > > from being sucked out of the stock because of the downgrade and drop.
> > > > I am in - my point of view is clear - and I am confident the results
> > > > will serve me either now or soon enough.   I get that you are short
> > > > FUQI - you may or not find an opening to make that work before it goes
> > > > up further. A lot of people have been seriously squeezed shorting FUQI
> > > > and a lot more will be.  It will go up and down - you might hit it -
> > > > you might eat it.  I remain confident of the long term trend.

> > > > PS  "All IBD #1 rated stocks will suffer an ugly fall" is no smarter
> > > > than "All IBD #1 stocks should be purchased."  PSS The fact that FUQI
> > > > is still small underscores the long run and huge opportunity before it
> > > > to me.  [see below]

> > > > Ms. Eileen B. Brody is Director of Fuqi International, Inc., since
> > > > June 2007. Ms. Brody has been President of Dawson-Forte Cashmere, an
> > > > apparel trading company that sources the majority of their cashmere
> > > > products from China. From 1997 to 2004, she was the Vice President of
> > > > Merchandising and Planning for Carter's Retail division of The William
> > > > Carter Company. From 1992 to 1997, she held various management
> > > > positions for Melville Corporation, a multi-billion dollar retailer.
> > > > From 1983 to 1990, Ms. Brody worked for KPMG Peat Marwick in various
> > > > positions including as a Senior Manager. While at KPMG, she was
> > > > responsible for audit services for a diverse clientele of large
> > > > Fortune 500 companies as well as small publicly traded companies and
> > > > provided due diligence services on a wide variety of acquisitions. Ms.
> > > > Brody is a Certified Public Accountant. She is the recipient of the
> > > > Fitzie Foundation-Harvard Business School award and the 2006 NCCE CO-
> > > > OP Hall of Fame Award. She received her Undergraduate and MBA degrees
> > > > from Pace University and a second MBA from the Harvard Graduate School
> > > > of Business in 1992.

> > > > On Sep 20, 9:28 am, afavorsky <afavor...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > > > > Jackson, I'd be grateful for a link on Audit integrity scores. And
> > > > > then I'd like to ask you:
> > > > > can you trust this service? What was their rating on Enron before it
> > > > > blew up? What was
> > > > > their take on banks last summer? What did tehy think about Flotek two
> > > > > years ago? In other words,
> > > > > how long have you followed this service and what sort of record do
> > > > > they have? Because let us be real and ask a practical question.
> > > > > How do they check fuqi numbers? Do they travel to China and go through
> > > > > their shops?
> > > > > Talk to their counterparties? They'd need to know Chinese dialects to
> > > > > do that carefully.
> > > > > I am pretty sure this is not the case. If you listened to the Q1 call,
> > > > > you may remember the
> > > > > epizode where they openly admitted that they have not yet been paid
> > > > > for the jewelry they shipped
> > > > > to their distributors (and booked as revenue). This is NOT
> > > > > international accounting standard.
> > > > > Chinese IT companies are a lot safer in this regard - most of them
> > > > > started up working with the
> > > > > US and their counterparties and accounting are much more solid.
> > > > >    My impression is that you have become emotional about fuqi. You
> > > > > love it as though it were a
> > > > > family member and choose to ignore red flags. This is understandable