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Discussions for China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd. View all discussions

  Conflictingg messages
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s.y...@favorit.com.cn  
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 More options May 14, 3:03 am
From: s.y...@favorit.com.cn
Date: Thu, 14 May 2009 00:03:53 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Thurs, May 14 2009 3:03 am
Subject: Conflictingg messages
Nepstar has discontinued providing forecasts. I think this is not a
very good move as drugstore should have stable and forecastable
business. Is there something we don't know?

On the otherhand, they raised the dividend to 35ct per ADR. This is a
sign of trust in the future.

But by doing this, I think the management gave the stockholders two
conflicting messages.

Please share your opinion.

Furthermore, has anyone visited a Nepstar Drugstore? If yes, I like to
hear your opinion about the formula, service offering etc.

Thanx in advance


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bad...@gmail.com  
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 More options May 14, 7:27 pm
From: bad...@gmail.com
Date: Thu, 14 May 2009 16:27:11 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Thurs, May 14 2009 7:27 pm
Subject: Re: Conflictingg messages
Yes ! I think something is going on....things have not been very
clear....
Hopefully it turns out to be the WALGREENS of China....I have been in
this since the IPO......
Keep posting.....

On May 14, 2:03 am, s.y...@favorit.com.cn wrote:


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dennis...@gmail.com  
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 More options May 19, 1:21 pm
From: dennis...@gmail.com
Date: Tue, 19 May 2009 10:21:46 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Tues, May 19 2009 1:21 pm
Subject: Re: Conflictingg messages
If you ever visited any Chinese drug store it is definitely not the
same as a Walgreen. It is more like a drugstore in Mexico with few
items such as fake sunglasses, slippers, disposable toothbrush.. So
the likelihood of this type of business ever becoming Walgreen of
China is next to none. While 35cents is tempting, the stock price is
not worth over $5 IMHO. $4 is when I will get in.

On May 14, 4:27 pm, bad...@gmail.com wrote:


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s.y...@favorit.com.cn  
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 More options May 20, 4:10 am
From: s.y...@favorit.com.cn
Date: Wed, 20 May 2009 01:10:17 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Wed, May 20 2009 4:10 am
Subject: Re: Conflictingg messages
The Chinese drugstore as painted by dennisluu is just not
representative in general. There are some Mom-and-Pop drugstores which
may fit that picture. But there are also a lot more professionally run
ones with very extensive assortment of OTC drugs, prescription drugs
and nutritional supplements. To dismiss NPD just like this is
shortsighted. Because the market is still developing and it creates
chance for parties like Nepstar to professionalize the industry and
become market leaders. Walgreen wasn't build overnight also. The same
kind of changes that are happening in the Chinese health care market
nowadays have happened in some way in the USA in the past. So you can
not rule out that Nepstar will eventually become the Walgreen of
China. Or CVS of China for that matter.

With the one child policy that has been in place for a few decades the
demography is changing. The number of people over 60 is growing and
the living standaard is improving. There will be a lot of demand for
medicines. And more and more people can afford it.

Combine the current market situation with the developments that is
going on and you have a dream market. But is Nepstar the Dream
company? I don't know. But note:

a)  the very healthy balance sheet of NPD. The cash per share is
almost worth USD 3.0 per share. There is no debt.
b) The current EPS is 16 which is not very high for a smallcap with
revenue growth of 27% (in 2008).
c) There is financial resource to continue the growth in the 20%
range.

On May 20, 1:21 am, dennis...@gmail.com wrote:


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mli.1...@gmail.com  
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 More options May 25, 10:59 pm
From: mli.1...@gmail.com
Date: Mon, 25 May 2009 19:59:58 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, May 25 2009 10:59 pm
Subject: Re: Conflictingg messages
Agree. Watch for Chinese Healthcare Reform, which will shift drug
distribution from hospitals to retail pharmacy.  NPD will benefit.
Near term swine flu can have some positive effect on NPD sales and
earning. The management stopped to provide guidence is a negative to
investors.  Given NPD has a better enterprise computer system, NPD
should have a better view of future sales, better inventory control,
as well as better understanding customer demand shift.  Temporary
economic slow down had some short term negative effect as management
indicated in last Q report, but i think it could be overstated.

Happy to see NPD is currently under-owned. As long as NPD keeps
expanding, leveraging its scale of economy, improving margin, I will
hold it and accumulate. NPD could be ideal way to play Chinese growth
economy and healthcare market.

On May 20, 4:10 am, s.y...@favorit.com.cn wrote:


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