Guys,

Let me know whether this is the right time to invest in this stock or
may be for short trade? Earnings report is on tomorrow, what do you
think ... pls throw some light on this stock ..

- C

Let me know whether this is the right time for me to buy a lotto
ticket.

In all seriousness, CT only has 22 million shares floating around.
Compare that to these mega banks that have 4 billion shares.

Sure, why not invest?  I mean, the growth potential is huge - but
there's always a risk.

CT is nowhere near bankrupt.  If they had to endure, say, 4-5 more
quarters like this, they would be in trouble.  But, the bottom has to
be somewhere.  There revenue is ok, and while only 60-70% of what it
used to be, the growth is quite nice.  They aren't defaulting on
loans, they have growing cash reserves, they raised the provision bar
to try and stop the bleeding next quarter (we hope), they are a 2+
billion dollar asset company (liabilities aside), etc etc.

The fact is, they are an REIT, and thus, offer the ability to see
profit returned to stockholders in mass quantities down the road, and
in the past.  There is absolutely no question of survivability for at
least two quarters - and considering the turnaround on a number of
fronts, including home sales, GDP, people saving AND spending more,
etc etc, you would really have to wait until 1st Quarter earnings of
2010, at this point, to start to consider a dump on this stock.

The question becomes, is this a one-time huge loss, or is it a new
trend.  You can take a loss like this and survive.  You can take a few
losses like it.  But can you take 3 or 4?  Those questions can NOT be
answered for another 6 months.

On Nov 3, 10:46 am, chandoo <chandoo.chan...@gmail.com> wrote:

Earning reports are online. I find it hard to predict anything.
What are your thoughts about the earning reports?

On Nov 4, 9:12 am, Scott <lord...@gmail.com> wrote:

I was in on the conference call. It sounds like CT has stablized and
is heading for a recovery.
They used this quarter to write off a lot of impairments and still
beat the analyst expectations.

There was 1 really bad trade at open where 20k shares were dumped off
at market value, down to $1.45 PPS

It seems like the seller may have had a margin call on another stock
and their CT was sold off this morning or something.
Or it could have been plain stupidity, but whatever it was, it set a
bad tone on the day with that opening low.

At any rate, that was pretty nonsensical. I am holding this until at
least 2010.

It could have also been somebody selling low to drive the pps down so
they could load up. I am not sure.
The beta of 2.03 is pretty low on this one. I see it shooting into the
double digits early next year or by xmas.

On Nov 3, 6:27 pm, Tomplum <i...@studioplum.be> wrote:

I think CT may hit a 1.60 low today besides the opener.
A lot of people bought on anticipation of the Q3 report thinking it
was going to jump after a better than expected result.

That result happened, and now those people realize that there are only
22M shares outstanding and most of the investors in CT are long term.

So there were quite a bit of unresearched investors until this morning
prompting the sell off. They probably won't buy back in either now
that they've learned the nature of the investors of CT. Which is low
volume and long term.

Actually they may buy back in, but once the stock breaks double digits
like LVS did.

Whatever the case, this isn't a marginable stock anyway at this time.
A short bet was the wrong bet to make on CT. Anybody who has been
watching CT or has researched it could have told you that. I am glad
that I can hold as long as I want as this one has huge potential, as
does AIB, EGT and others in my opinion.

I am not a pro however. Just an amateur investor. I have been trading
for a little over a year now, but have a good record of ROI.

In other words. The stock isn't dipping because they didn't beat
expectations. They did.
The stock is dipping because the short term investors didn't know what
they were doing.

This stock only rises on low trading days. It falls on high volume.

This stock will be stuck in limbo for another quarter, up a dollar,
down a dollar, going nowhere fast, a few cents a day starting next
week.  Similar to last quarter's movement.

Operational sustainability isn't the same as net value, which is what
the "Net Loss" is heavily weighed in as.  It's a slightly misleading
figure, as a company could be earning 100 million in loan interest, or
raw cash, but if their market value assets plummet and they write off
100 million as bad loans, the net could be zero, despite operating
very well.      These figures were randomly selected from nowhere.

At any rate, I'm a little disappointed in CT's financial reports of
clarity.

Loan interest (revenue) dropped by $1 million, from $30.5 mil to $29.5
mil.  Although back in 2008, there were $50 mil revenue quarters
reported.  But, from last quarter to this quarter, the drop wasn't
that significant.

Less expenses on operating those loans, the net change in loan profit
was only and a $400k after a reduction in costs.   So realistically,
loan profit appears to have fallen from $10.33 mil to $9.92 mil.

Under 'other revenues', Q3 improved by $50k, to end at $3.143 mil.
Although, 'other expenses' rose in Q3 to $5.543 mil, up almost $1 mil.

Those appear to be the operational costs and revenue, which would run
around $14 mil in operating profit (not sure on taxes).

I'm seeing $113 in asset losses, or impairments/goodwill/charge-offs/
provisions/etc....

Other than that, I seem to have my math off, but as I said, the report
is a bit sloppy and disoriented.  Somewhere I need $10 mil in
additional losses but I'm not sure where.

Hmmmm, You should have called into the conference call. There was a
question period where you could ask a question.
They didn't get any questions, so they said "there are no questions,
so I think we've said it all" and hung up the conference call.

At any rate, those who though they could short this type of stock on
an earnings report were pretty shocked today.
This stock was heavily overbought before the Q3 report. Even if they
had pared all losses and reported a $0.10 dividend, theoretically, I
have a feeling it would not have stopped the sell off today.

The type of overbuying we were seeing was not from investors
interested in dividends for sure.

It's just a shame that they didn't look at the graph before buying in.
Even though CT is listed on the NYSE, it is not marginable, and is
little more than a glorified penny stock at this point. Granted, they
are a strong company, and well organized. So in that respect, they are
not a penny stock. But technically, they are still a penny stock and
to have tried to short sell it was pretty dumb.

LOLZ,
C

On Nov 4, 9:00 am, Scott <lord...@gmail.com> wrote: