probably not:
http://deminvest.wordpress.com/2007/03/05/re-and-the-crash-of-2007-be...
but maybe yes:
http://chartingstocks.net/2007/03/04/and-the-crash-of-2007-begins/

No where near.  Twice it has bounced at around 12000.  This is more
than likely going to be the bottom.  Cramer says the same thing,
www.cramersez.com.  You can listen to whoever you wish, but if you are
thinking this is going to be another 29, forget it, this won't be
another 87.   It might be 3 months before we get back to where we
were, but it is not going to crash.  Good luck all!

I really hope you're right. I am holding all my shares. Good Luck you
too!

Again we see the market bounce from about 12000.  This is the 3rd time
that it has tested a bottom and bounced.  The chance of the market
going below this number is low.  We are still near the bottom, so I
think the down side is very minimal right now.  Also, all signs point
to a FED decrease in interest rates.   3 reasons, 1st suprime is
keeping loans out of the hands of the working class, 2nd commodities
have been losing ground, and 3rd, after every crisis, the FED responds
by lowering rates.  I think Cramer is right, www.cramersez.com, and
that rates will be lowered in May 07.  Also, and probably more
importantly, is the FED will come out with some type of comment before
that, stating that they are "biased" toward lowering rates.  This will
cause the market to jump.   When this happens, the market will price
in the FED cut before it happens.  So, if you believe a FED cut is
coming, then you might want to get in now, before they state their
intention, or actually do it.   Good luck all

I don't believe the fed is concerned about "commodities losing ground"
or "loans in the hands of the working class."  The fed is *happy*
right now that the monetary bubble is deflating--that's what they want
to happen (for good reason).  There has been too much money in this
economy over the past 5 years as evidenced by the housing "boom" which
was primarily speculative.  They won't raise rates as long as
inflation is looming on the horizon, which it is.  I'm not looking for
any rate cuts any time soon.

hedge funds are artificially keeping it up and squeezing the shorts in
preparation for a crash (500 pts) tomorrow (thurs).  chicago fed said
today that inflation remains a concern so maybe no rate cut soon.
institutions have lost all their gains for the year and are on the
verge of panic.  last week's plunge was led by banks and brokers
indicating a financial panic setting up.  the banks did come back in
recently but it will take more to push upward again.  recent lunar
eclipse and merc direct thurs are interesting.  hedge funds are all
over leveraged and hurting -one big bankruptcy will send them all down
in a panic.  this march will be bad.  fundementals are meaningless
except over the very long term.  short every rally and wait for 35
days before getting back in.  risk does not equal return, it equals
loss.  successful traders manage risk and the risk now is way above
the potential return.  carry trade redemptions have paused briefly
over the last two days but will soon pick up.  bernake recently
admitted that slower growth (2 - 2.5%) is ahead and greenspan is still
trash talking.  hersh, in the march new yorker, details bush is ready
to bomb iran at any time now.   triple witching expires soon and are
you still long??

Unbelieveable.  Hedgfunds make money whether the market goes up or
down, Or at least they try to.  They have no incentive to keep the
market up, as they will try to make money in either an up or down
market.   There will be another correction coming, probably sooner
than we expect, but lose the conspiracy theory.   On two occasions the
dow has bounced off the bottom from last tuesday, this is a good
sign.   Not sure what will happen, but if you are short, at least make
an intelligent arguement.

no conspiracy, just funds with money power making more money.  they do
make $ either way but some ways are better than others - they can't
push it up forever, so they reverse.  this is a global asset deflation
cycle - gold heading down and oil to $48.  new zealand changed their
interest rate so possible currency war heating up.  us now in slow
growth mode according to bernake - this is a sea change.  small caps
pumped yesterday (wed), today gets the larger caps - this is a typical
manipulation pattern.  even cramer (whom i have no confidence in - his
fundamental approach was fine for the 20 years prior to 2000 when the
market went up only and long term view was ok.  now in a bracketing
trading market, which is best for hedge funds) says market is
controlled by only 150 people.  Friday looks like the big down, maybe
not today, thurs (but today should fall later in the day).  impossible
to get exact since working with probabilities (sorry!).  unemployment
numbers out today, we'll see how that plays out.  carry trade
redemptions back on soon and triple witching now.  option expiration
is one reason the big funds move the market in their favor, by the
way.  small investor is meat to these guys.  if you still think you
can intuit/predict the market without an understanding of the hedge
fund moves, you are dead meat.  buy/sell programs are what (mostly)
moves the market and they can feed in over two months (their average
time) under the wire so you won't see them at it.  i'd most definately
short every rally.  plenty of bad news out there.  a big bankruptcy
would make a big crash.  investors have lost their understanding of
relative risk and so are living in a dream world.  behavioral finance
says we overweight news that fits our views, and so we are
overconfident.  this is why markets go out of balance and then return
to value over time (also called a "correction").  sub prime lenders
are in trouble and the housing crunch could easily spill over to the
rest of the economy.  these subprime lenders have securitized/
collateralized their portfolios and sold the pieces to the hedge funds
who are not constrained by law or policy as to what they can invest
in.  hedge funds are after return at almost any cost; their
understanding of risk is relative to other hedge funds and they invest
outside the efficient frontier.  which works in a friendly
environment.  but risk is not always return.  and you know things are
out of balance when junk bonds are termed "high-yield corporates" as
they now are.  are you still confident in Your "analysis??"

by the way, "third bounce" on the 1200 dow??  every trader knows that
support and resistance levels are tested three or four times before a
break-out.  bounces are just a gathering of momentum and the more
bounces, the stronger the break.

Think again.

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/mar2007/pi20070307_50530...

Need no further second guessin.... 12000 level was broken hour ago. It
is finding its way up now.
No end to the selling...

flat tomorrow or temp bounce thurs in prep for triple witching.
subprime is bad and will get badder but baddest is the carry-trade
unwind.  yen and pound also will start to unwind to the tune of
trillions as foreigners bring their $ home.  this will push the dollar
down so the fed will have to defend by Raising interest rates causing
a bigger drop in the dow.  six weeks of down then just a bad market
for a year.  gold and oil down as hedge funds get margin calls.  one
big bankruptcy could be the tailwind.

Spoke to a technical guy today and he was negative the market as he
said the bounces of the support levels have been on limited volume and
as such means most people are waiting on the sidelines - this is not a
good sign.  Whether the market goes up or not who knows but if you're
short or long anything then hedge it against the S&P 500 so that you
end up playing the individual company and not the yen dollar carry
trade.  This is the time when you can go out there and buy those great
companies that 3 months ago you said if I could buy it at so and so I
would. if you want to gamble on the market - good luck to you... for
what its worth i'd be short.

options expiration is holding up the market now but monday looks like
a down day.  gold has probably hit its high.  i'd particularly watch
next thursday.

the market is in the early stage of a broader sell off over the next
six weeks.  the funds are waiting to liquidate until after march
quarter end.  be out of your longs before then.

japan carry-trade is about to resume and will force down the dollar,
causing the fed to defend - don't look for the fed to decrease
interest rates.  and inflation seems to be back.

The fed will decrease the rate, maybe twice.  Most financial experts
see it happening later this year, Cramer says it will be as early as
May.  A weakening dollar against the yen is a good thing for the
economy, however not enough to be an inflation concern.  I am still
betting on the rate reductions and will follow Cramer's advice and buy
GS on Monday.  www.cramersez.com has his daily review.  If you
followed Cramer last week, you knew it was going to be a tough market,
and now he has GS targeted.  Whether you like his show or not, his
advice is great.

friday afternoon selling was the result of the normal quarterly s&p
fund rebalancing after the option expiration, so monday could reverse
and go up a bit.

thurs, 22nd. could be a temp low followed by a week of rally before
heading way down.  this rally is due to the fund's end of quarter and
a short squeeze.

gs should rally to 206 before going down to 197 and then to 186.

It seems to me thqat the situation has very well recovered. China
markets are again around their MAX. US markets are doing fairly well
too...

amazing how the down in china affected everyone when the entire china
stock market is only 5%
of the nyse capitalization.  that says something about investors being
on the edge.

we are close to a bad crash.  quarterly earnings reports on their way
are not good.
we are past the mar 31st quarter end so the funds can now legally sell
their tattered longs.

blackstone has yet to do their ipo - after the ipo, the market will be
released from being
arbitrarily held up by the funds and should head down fast.

note that 60% of americans expect a recession this year.  there is
very little upside
and lots of down risk.

subprime has not played out in earnings hits.

the carry trade will continue reversing as dollars are repatriated to
london and tokyo.
the dollar is headed down and the fed has no room to cut rates due to
inflation.

overall weakness in the housing market, coupled with the dollar
weakness and no interest rate cuts are going to drive the overall
market downward for the next couple of months, the wealth effect that
drove the market in the last serveral years is gone. people feel poor
and spending will drop off

because no1 can profit from it.
But I m sure u wont get it this time as well

There are going to be up days, but the overall path is downward, I do
not care how many mergers are planned for this year, the consumer is
busted, home owners have no means left to " get cash" they are broke,
and the economy is sinking slowly. The war is costing us 20 billion
dollars a month, sure there are more job creations, especially at the
fast food places, the real driver of the economy are high paying jobs,
if you don't have that, then you need to borrow a ton of money and
spend it like Brittany spears on a night out, the sub-prime party is
over, and the housing market enbled people of small financial means to
recieve hugh loans that they had no intentions of paying back, great
for growth, for the short term, not so good later on, the market and
the united states economy needs a correction.

poste some recommendations or realtime entries but
pleazzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzze
get rid of this stuff telling the world wat u r thinking

Bakbo, you self-righteous prick.  You post dozens of times per day
indicating what "u r" (can you just spell out "you are" for
chrissakes!  How hard is that?) thinking and then have the nerve to
tell someone else to "get rid of this stuff telling the world wat u r
thinking".

You could save us all a great deal of effort by ceasing to post your
meaningless "strong, weak, very strong, very weak" drivel.

Dear Mr Bakbo,

You of all people shouldn't be telling someone else what kind of posts
they should be writing.  Your own posts look no different than the
Viagra spam that floods people's email accounts.  When you do write
something that contains more than two words its written like a 12 year
old using an instant messaging program.  For example: "wat", "u", "r",
"pleazzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzze", and the like are not real words.
Furthermore someone posting what they think is what a discussion board
is for.  So if you don't like posts telling what people think then
don't visit the discussion board.