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Re: IT WASN'T A GLITCH

Noel <noel.tu...@gmail.com>

saved2p...@gmail.com wrote:
> Congratulations, you realize the importance of preventing non-
> professionals from throwing themselves into a panic frenzy. You are
> incorrect in your analysis of this drop being a sign of things to
> come. Professionals (please leave the market analysis to them) are
> forecasting 2007 as a slowdown year, but not a crash. Please don't be
> your own self-described lemming.

It only got worse in mid-March (see charts high vs. low for the DOW on
BigCharts).  With that we got two pretty good dips in March. And
actually I would prefer non-professionals to sell off in a panic
frenzy since it will allow the rest of us to buy great stocks at lower
prices.

Next let me bring up some additional points from another board
discussion:


From:  marco...@gmail.com - view profile
Date:  Thurs, Mar 22 2007 5:19 pm
Email:   marco...@gmail.com

Hello,

I think PE ratio is the worse ever invented. PEG is a bit better, but
still, being a ratio where you measure profits as a proportion of
marketvalue, when we have seen that profits for companies are nothing
but stable, is not a good indicator of weather the market is
overvalued or undervalued.

Another thing is inflation.. the inflation rate is calculated based
on
a basked of goods and measures purchasing parity. but there doesnt
need to be any correlation between inflation evolution and stocks
valuation.

I am bearish too, and to your topic... I think you should focus it
this way:
The consumer is seriously in debt in USA and elsewhere.
Housing market bubble, with evidence of real assets loosing value
Example:Subprime mortgage problems
Trade deficit that keeps widening
Dollar declining non stop
Energy prices rising and energy supply disruptions growing
Social security seriously underfunded
China and Japan holding massive positions of US Bonds to keep their
currencies and keep accumulating more to fuel the US economy. But at
one point, debt has to be repaid, and either you do better, get more
competitive and are able to repay, or you default/collapse.

And one final remark to be considered without the previous points...
Do you see any reasonable reason to keep rising? Whenever you see no
reason to keep rising, i think its the time to get out..
<<<

Though this guy decidedly disagrees with me on PE ratios, he does
bring up many good points that are ailing our economy.

I was hoping my comments/opinions would have fostered a more mature
discussion between bearish/bullish viewpoints.  Unfortunately that
wasn't the case.  Your negative rhetoric leads me to assume you lost
money on 2-27.  Hopefully that wasn't the case.

Good luck~